HAVING worn them for 57years, the people of Lake Macquarie shed their rusted-on Labor badges in 2007 and don’t appear to be in any hurry to put them back on.
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Whether or not that’s a good thing remains to be seen, but it has raised the usual questions about the effectiveness of having an independent MP in Parliament, and if a safe seat of any political colour is actually a good thing.
Independent Greg Piper will head into this Saturday’s election as the clear favourite to win his third term in office. He’ll likely face his biggest opposition from Labor’s Melissa Cleary, despite Labor finishing third in the 2011 Liberal landslide.
Mr Piper’s support base stems largely from the southern end of Lake Macquarie – he lives at Mirrabooka on the Morisset peninsula – where the majority of residents have felt largely alienated and forgotten about by the major parties.
‘‘I do have the ear of the government,’’ Mr Piper said when asked about an independent’s effectiveness. ‘‘As an independent you can make a statement and I have made a very big statement from the crossbench.’’
It might sound a bit odd on the eve of an election, but Mr Piper even spared some praise for the Liberal Premier Mike Baird.
‘‘I have been telling Mike for years about the sewerage issue at Wyee, long before he became Premier,’’ he said. ‘‘And now he’s agreed to spend $26 million on fixing it, and that’s something that Labor could never achieve.
‘‘I got 22 more police into the area by getting in the ear of [then police minister] David Campbell. The government and opposition are acutely aware of the crossbench.
‘‘Someone like [Newcastle Labor MP] Tim Crakanthorp can sit on the opposition benches and be pretty useless, but an independent can actually do things with the government without having to toe some party line.
‘‘I often say: ‘I might not be in government, but I’ve never been in opposition’.’’
Ms Cleary and Greens candidate Ivan Macfadyen aren’t so sure.
‘‘What does that actually mean?’’ Ms Cleary said. ‘‘I don’t know where that leaves him, or what he can actually achieve by not being part of a bigger team that makes the decisions.’’
‘‘I have a different issue with it,’’ Mr Macfadyen said. ‘‘It’s not necessarily a problem I have with Greg, but Lake Macquarie is now considered a safe independent seat. That means it will get little attention from either of the big parties. If it was a marginal seat, wouldn’t the Liberal and Labor parties sit up and take notice then.’’
Whatever happens on Saturday, it will likely reflect the aversion to change held by the Lake Macquarie electorate.
In its 65-year history, the seat has been held by only four different MPs.
AT A GLANCE
Labor is giving itself a good chance of regaining Lake Macquarie - the seat it held for 57 years before former Lake mayor Greg Piper first claimed it as an independent in 2007.
Mr Piper emerged from the 2011 election with a 14.6 per cent margin, and while a small boundary redistribution might have done him no favours, such a margin may well be too big a mountain for Labor’s Melissa Cleary to climb.
But the wolves are approaching the door for Mr Piper, and they’re barking about the effectiveness of an independent in securing the big ticket items out of Liberal or Labor state governments for the western side of Lake Macquarie which is experiencing significant growth.
Road issues have become a major issue for voters, especially at Toronto, Fennell Bay, Booragul and Argenton with no significant relief on the horizon.
Interestingly, Lake Macquarie has only had four MPs since it was formed in 1950 - James Simpson (Labor, 19 years), Merv Hunter (Labor, 22 years), his son Jeff Hunter (Labor, 16 years) and Mr Piper (Independent, 9 years).
OUR PREDICTION
Change is in the wind, but it will have to be a big wind if we’re going to see change this time around.
Suburbs in electorate: Arcadia Vale, Argenton, Awaba, Balcolyn, Balmoral, Blackalls Park, Bolton Point, Bonnells Bay, Boolaroo, Booragul, Brightwaters, Buttaba, Cardiff, Cardiff South, Carey Bay, Coal Point, Cockle Creek, Cooranbong, Dora Creek, Eraring, Fassifern, Fennell Bay, Fishing Point, Freemans Waterhole, Kilaben Bay, Killingworth, Lakelands, Macquarie Hills, Mandalong, Marmong Point, Martinsville, Mirrabooka, Morisset, Morisset Park, Myuna Bay, Rathmines, Ryhope, Silverwater, Speers Point, Sunshine, Teralba, Toronto, Wakefield, Wangi Wangi, Warners Bay, Windermere Park, Woodrising, Wyee, Wyee Point, Yarrawonga Park.
Currently held by: Greg Piper, Independent
Margin: 14.6% to Independent
Boundary redistribution: reduced Piper’s margin by 0.3% on 2011 result.
Voters: 53,967
Two-party preferred result 2011: Greg Piper (Independent) 25,356 beat John McDonald (Liberal) 13,733
Total population: 67,317
Median age: 43
Total workforce: 30,402
Weekly household income: $1062
People who travel to work by public transport: 950
People who travel to work by car as passenger or driver: 21,126
Couples without children: 7920
Couples with children: 7482
One parent families: 3199
Own house outright: 9601
Own house with mortgage: 8586
Rent home: 5760
Median monthly mortgage repayment: $1733
Unemployment rate: TBC
CANDIDATES IN BALLOT ORDER
1. Ivan Macfadyen, Greens
2. Greg Piper, Independent
3. Daniel Collard, Liberal
4. Melissa Cleary, Labor
5. Kim Gritten, Christian Democratic Party
6. Andrew Coroneo, No Land Tax
7. Susan Strain, Animal Justice Party
* Information collected from 2011 Census, Newcastle Herald archive and Elections NSW.
