AS Trent Robinson celebrated the second premiership of his relatively brief coaching career last Sunday, I found myself pondering what might have been.
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In particular, what might have been for Robinson, and the Knights, had Newcastle officials made a different decision towards the end of the 2009 NRL season.
At the time, after a halcyon start to the year, the Knights had slumped to three heavy defeats in a row, not long after news broke that head coach Brian Smith would be joining Sydney Roosters at the end of the campaign.
After initially backing Smith, Newcastle’s powers-that-be reached the conclusion that his situation had become untenable, and stepped in to give the veteran tactician his marching orders with four preliminary rounds left.
In replacing Smith, they took what appeared to be the logical or safe option, promoting his understudy, Rick Stone.
The other assistant coach on their staff at the time was Robinson, who was little known when Smith brought him to Newcastle in late 2006. Robinson’s name may have figured briefly in the discussion, but it’s unlikely he was ever a genuine candidate to be offered the top job.
His coaching career, at the time, incorporated a stint as captain-coach with Toulouse Olympique in the semi-professional French competition, and his time at the helm of the Knights’ reserve grade and under-20 outfits.
Stone, in contrast, had enjoyed a long and successful tenure with Burleigh Bears in the Queensland Cup, as well as serving as deputy for both Michael Hagan and Smith.
So Stone was appointed, and Robinson assisted him for the rest of the year, before joining Smith at the Roosters.
A year later, Robinson secured his first head-coaching position, with Catalans Dragons in Super League, then in 2013 he was invited back to take charge of the Roosters, after Smith’s reign was cut short.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Robinson won a premiership in his debut season, and made it two in the space of six years last weekend, as well as four minor premierships. Only Melbourne Storm have won more games in the same time frame, although they have only one title to show for it.
To put that in context, both Craig Bellamy and Wayne Bennett had won just one grand final apiece in their first six seasons as head coaches.
It’s easy, of course, to be wise in hindsight, and Newcastle’s management did not have the luxury of a crystal ball in 2009 – and nor do they now.
But for the sake of a hypothetical argument, I find it slightly intriguing to speculate about the scenario that may have panned out had the Knights appointed Robinson, instead of Stone, after Smith’s abrupt departure.
Stone battled away for the next two years with a roster that was competitive but lacking in star quality, reaching the first round of the play-offs in 2009 and 2011.
But when Nathan Tinkler privatised the Knights, his first strategic move was to sign seven-time premiership winner Bennett from St George Illawarra, although Stone was retained as an assistant.
Would the Knights, under Robinson, have produced superior results than they did under Stone, and hence would Tinkler have been less inclined to pursue Bennett?
Would Robinson have assembled a roster capable of delivering long-term success, rather than the expensive and ultimately unsuccessful quick-fix policy favoured by Tinkler and Bennett?
In short, would Robinson still be in charge – the Knights’ longest-serving coach – and the turmoil and heartache of recent seasons somehow have been avoided?
Alternatively, would Robinson, with the roster Stone had his disposal, delivered similar results and been considered dispensable as soon as Tinkler launched his reign of error?
If so, would Robinson now be among the myriad one-club head coaches on the scrapheap?
We’ll never know. Suffice to say that while Robinson is eternally grateful to the opportunity the Knights afforded him, it’s hard to imagine he has any regrets about joining one of the NRL’s benchmark franchises.
What the Roosters showed in demolishing the Storm last weekend is that they remain a quantum leap ahead of rebuilding teams like the Knights.
Former Roosters Mitchell Pearce, Aidan Guerra and Shaun Kenny-Dowall provided great value for Newcastle last season, and Connor Watson showed glimpses of potential despite an injury-interrupted year.
But realistically, all four were players the Roosters were willing to let go. Results would suggest Robinson subsequently upgraded and strengthened his squad.
Somehow the Knights have to close the gap between themselves and the Roosters, and there seems little evidence to suggest the premiers will be any less imposing next year, when they add Angus Crichton (South Sydney), Brett Morris (Bulldogs) and Ryan Hall (Leeds) to their squad.
For all the improvement the Knights made in 2018, they still have a long way to go.
Their fans will be daring to dream about featuring in next year’s play-offs. For Trent Robinson and the Roosters, that will be their bare-minimum expectation.