MOMENTUM is a fickle commodity in rugby league.
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A team can be leading a game by an apparently comfortable margin, in cruise control with victory all but assured. Suddenly an intercept try or a silly penalty can dramatically transform proceedings.
Before the front-runners realise what has hit them, their opponents have grabbed the impetus and are making inroads, then dominating, and soon confidence starts turning into panic.
Just as teams can surrender momentum mid-game, so it can happen over the course of a season, as the Knights have discovered to their dismay over the past five weeks.
Sitting pretty in fifth position after their 26-12 win against Brisbane in round 15, they had nosedived to 11th before round 21 kicked off, with just five games left before the play-offs.
Should they lose to Parramatta at Bankwest Stadium on Saturday, and other results go against them, Newcastle will be four points behind the top eight.
In that case only their most loyal diehards will be clinging to the "mathematical chance" they have of qualifying for the finals. Everyone else will give them Buckley's hope.
Their demise has prompted the obvious question of what has gone wrong?
How have a side who won six consecutive games between round seven and 13 - including the prized scalps of premiers Sydney Roosters and incumbent competition leaders South Sydney - unravelled so rapidly.
To answer that, reflecting on what seemed to be going right earlier in the season might shed a little light.
For starters, perhaps some of Newcastle's wins flattered to deceive. The Roosters, for instance, opted to rest Cooper Cronk and lost Luke Keary to concussion early in the game.
Without their on-field generals, they were vulnerable and Newcastle showed no mercy in racking up a 38-12 scoreline.
It was a similar story a week later, when Souths, minus Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker, and with Sam Burgess carrying a shoulder injury that required surgery days later, succumbed 20-12.
Long-suffering Knights fans started assuming a first finals appearance since 2013 was a fait accompli. Did Newcastle's players, some of whom had never previously won more than a game or two in a row, subconsciously take their foot off the pedal?
Did overconfidence and complacency take a toll?
A week later, Melbourne provided a ruthless reality check with a comprehensive 34-4 win at AAMI Park.
Around this time, Newcastle had two bye weeks in the space of a month and, for the first time in recent memory, found their roster drained by State of Origin commitments. Both of which, in hindsight, had a disruptive impact.
Five Knights were involved in Origin - Mitchell Pearce, David Klemmer, Kalyn Ponga, Daniel Saifiti and Tim Glasby - which placed them alongside Melbourne as the most heavily represented club. They lost one game to the Warriors (24-20) without their Origin contingent, and another to Canterbury (20-14) a week later, when weary rep players backed up just 48 hours after their series decider.
In their next game, at the SCG, they held the Roosters to 12-10 until the 55th minute, at which point the floodgates burst open and the champions ran in six converted tries.
I remember hearing Michael Ennis say on Foxtel that the Knights "looked tired", and that was reinforced six days later, when they led Wests Tigers 12-0 at home, only to fade out and lose 28-26.
At Brookvale last week, the trend continued when an 8-6 half-time deficit became a blow-out 30-6 loss to Manly.
In recent weeks, coach Nathan Brown has seemed bereft of answers, admitting that his players are lacking both confidence and mental toughness.
How they recover enough positive energy to beat Parramatta at their new fortress is anyone's guess.
Still, stranger things have happened.
The Knights have already knocked over the Eels this year, 28-10 in round seven, to launch their winning run.
They have actually won four straight games against Parramatta, and 11 of their past 13. For whatever reason, Newcastle have had their measure.
Let's just imagine the visitors can jag a win. Next week, they're at home to North Queensland, who have lost six of their past seven games and are out of contention.
Back-to-back victories would presumably reinstate some much-needed belief for the trip to Campbelltown to tackle fellow play-off aspirants the Tigers, after which Newcastle have Old Boys' day at home to last-placed Gold Coast Titans.
The last round of the season is a daunting trip to Penrith, which could potentially be do-or-die for both teams. If, that is, their finals ambitions are not already officially extinct.
All of which strikes me as achievable for a team with as many high-calibre, big-game players as Newcastle.
It all sounds good in theory, anyway, although naturally their opponents might beg to differ.
But it all has to start against Parramatta on Saturday, while there is still a glimmer of hope.
At some point against the Eels, Newcastle have to seize the momentum, cling to it for dear life, and carry it into what remains of their season.