The amount of households eligible for social housing could be 261 per cent higher than existing wait lists reveal and grow in coming years if technological advances displace or reduce the wages of low to moderate-income workers, a study has found.
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Compass Housing, a social and affordable housing provider, released a report on Wednesday titled: Estimating Current and Future Demand for Social Housing Assistance, which shows the extent of existing social housing demand and models the potential future demand created by shifts in the labour market as a result of automation.
It says there are 144,800 applicants on wait lists for social housing across Australia.
"There are currently more than 48,000 households on the waiting list for social housing in NSW, the highest number of any state in Australia," report author Martin Kennedy said.
"This is equivalent to 31 per cent of the total number of social housing dwellings (154,659).
"Average waiting times ... in the Hunter are between five and 10 years depending on the type of property."
Research derived from income and asset census data found 597,312 households in Australia met the eligibility criteria for social housing, including 175,904 in NSW.
Mr Kennedy said that meant about 127,000 households in NSW were eligible for social housing but, as yet, had chosen not to apply.
"If every household in NSW who met the eligibility criteria for social housing decided to apply, waiting lists across the state would increase by more than 261 per cent," he said.
"The number of households eligible for social housing but not currently living in it, is equivalent to approximately 21 per cent of all renting households in NSW ... and in regional NSW areas such as the Hunter it is 34 per cent."
Mr Kennedy said the NSW government's Future Directions for Social Housing policy only proposed enough dwellings to house less than half the current wait list over a 10-year period.
He said the shortfall could potentially worsen as automation and artificial intelligence use increased in workplaces.
"This has the potential to add to social housing demand by displacing some workers and eroding the incomes of others," he said, adding structural change to the economy often left workers struggling to re-enter the workforce.
Research found as many as 20 per cent of affected works remained out of work three years later and those that did re-enter the workforce generally experienced declines in wages of between 10 to 20 per cent.
"The impact of automation on social housing eligibility may be more pronounced in regional NSW than Sydney due to the lower average incomes - meaning they're less able to absorb a 10 to 20 per cent hit to their incomes and stay above the threshold."
The report recommended increasing the supply of affordable housing and re-skilling programs.
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