Owner Luke Murrell predicts the wide barrier and bias towards on-pace runners at Rosehill to make Mugatoo the outsider of his Kris Lees-trained trio in the group 1 Tancred Stakes (2400 metres) on Saturday.
But he wouldn't be surprised to see any of them win.
The TAB on Friday had Mugatoo at $7, in front of stablemates and fellow Australian Bloodstock imports Mustajeer ($9) and Danceteria ($23), for the $1.5 million weight-for-age race.
Verry Elleegant was the $2 favourite ahead of Avilius ($5) and Murrell believed his team deserved to be closer to the leading pair in estimates.
"I'm certainly a lot more confident than the market is," the Australian Bloodstock director said.
Mugatoo won his first three starts in Australia then was outstayed when second to Young Rascal last Saturday in the group 3 Manion Cup (2400m) at Rosehill, where forward and inside runners dominated the program.
Murrell said Mugatoo had the most upside of his trio but the draw in nine of nine would hurt his chances.
"He's still very new and he doesn't know he needs to relax," Murrell said. "Every time a horse comes near him, he wants to race them, so he races stop-start.
"Kris's theory is maybe the quick back-up will take that edge off him and help him relax more, but we've got a horrible barrier."
Mustajeer was also second at his last start, finishing 3.5 lengths behind Master Of Wine over 2000m at Rosehill at group 3 level, after a listed win first-up.
"He was easily beaten, but I think it was a case of how that race was run," Murrell said of the defeat. "The set-up probably suited the other horse. I'd have him nearly a clear second favourite in this race and I think he could win.
"He will probably be closer in the run [from gate two] and anywhere near his best form, he'll go really close."
Another plus is no crowd for Mustajeer, which has fired up pre-race.
"Kris has done a great job with him and he's been a lot more settled this preparation than we were anticipating, but with no crowd, that will be really good for him."
He expected Danceteria, a group 1 winner in Germany over 2000m, to surprise.
"His past three runs have not been up to where we expected, but we've been happy with his whole work this time in and they say it's been as good as the other horses this week, so I think he's the really big improver," he said. "And at that price, I'll be devastated if he doesn't run top four. I think he's a genuine chance."
Australian Bloodstock and Lees also have Game Of Thorns in the group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) for three-year-old fillies and nine starters together across six group races at Rosehill.
Game Of Thorns ($26) was a held up badly for a run last start in the Kembla Grange Classic (1600m) and has gate three on Saturday.
"We know she's always been looking for 2000," he said. "I've got a big doubt about Probabeel running the trip and Funstar looks the winner, but I think she's was the run out of the Kembla Grange race and I think she can run second."
Blazing Sunrise ($21) will contest the group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) for three-year-olds.
"I didn't think that was an overly strong race," Murrell said.
"He's an outsider there but I don't think he deserved to be that price.
"I think he can run a cheeky race. I always thought he'd be a stayer but he's just had a few setbacks. He won really good the other day and he can place at a good price."
Aliferous ($7.50) and Saunter Boy ($34) were in the group 3 Neville Sellwood (2000m). Murrell said Aliferous was going well but was too short in betting and "probably needs a heavier track to be at her best".
Delectation Girl ($34) and stablemates Invincible Gem ($19) and Miss Fabulass ($14) are in the group 2 Emancipation Stakes (1500m).
Tactical Advantage ($19) runs second-up in the group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m).
"We knew he wouldn't handle that really heavy track first-up and he's got an inside barrier and I think he can win at $17," Murrell said.