THE top four appears a bridge too far, but the Newcastle Knights are still in contention for a crucial advantage in the NRL finals - the right to host a sudden-death game on home turf.
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With four rounds left in the season, Newcastle have slipped to seventh on the competition ladder, three points behind the two teams sitting equal fourth, Sydney Rosters and Canberra.
Only the most parochial of Novocastrians would give the Knights any hope of overhauling either the Roosters or the Raiders in the run home, let alone any of the three teams above them, Penrith, Melbourne and Parramatta.
So that leaves Newcastle in a no-holds-barred dogfight with South Sydney and Cronulla for the bottom three positions in the final eight.
The NRL have confirmed the usual hosting rights will apply for week one of the finals, so if the Knights can finish sixth, they will be at home against the seventh-placed qualifiers in an elimination showdown.
Newcastle (19 points) are currently a point behind Souths, and a point ahead of Cronulla, who they tackle at McDonald Jones Stadium on Friday night.
All three teams will be desperate to avoid finishing eighth, which could mean a do-or-die away game against the Raiders or Roosters in their opening play-off.
The home-ground advantage will be even more valuable in the finals if the NRL persist with their current biosecurity protocols, whereby visiting teams have to travel on game day, rather than 24 hours before and staying overnight in a hotel.
The last time the Knights hosted a final at Turton Road was in 2006, when they beat Manly 25-18 in a thriller.
After the Sharks on Friday, the Knights play the Roosters, St George Illawarra and Gold Coast to round out the season.
Their destiny remains in their own hands, but they will need to bounce back emphatically from Saturday's 36-6 trouncing by the Warriors in Tamworth.
Knights coach Adam O'Brien is looking no further ahead than Friday night's clash with the Sharks, which shapes as a pivotal juncture in his team's season.
O'Brien admitted he faces a selection dilemma in choosing a replacement for young prop Pasami Saulo, who will take the early guilty plea for a "cannonball" style tackle against the Warriors and serve a week's suspension.
With Daniel Saifiti (knee) and Sione Mata'utia (ankle) likely to spend another week on the sidelines, the options to replace Saulo are back-rower Brodie Jones, who has five NRL appearances to his name, and 21-year-old prop Jirah Momoisea, who is yet to debut in the top grade.
"It's a tough one," O'Brien said.
"Bodie's done a job for us every time he's played, and I know he won't let anyone down.
"But Jirah has been really, really good at training over the last month or so. It seems like his hunger has increased because some of the senior players have been encouraging him. I'm not sure which way I'll go yet, but one of those two young guys will get an opportunity."
O'Brien said he would also consider reinstating rookie Tex Hoy, who Knights legend Andrew Johns believes can provide some "spark" in attack.
Hoy's last game was the 10-4 loss to Parramatta on July 12, and he could come into the team either as a bench utility or as replacement for Mason Lino at five-eighth.
Lino struggled against the Warriors, but it was his first game of the season and will presumably be better for the run. It didn't help his cause that many of his teammates were off their game.
Knights skipper Mitchell Pearce noted that his team have shown this season they can regroup and respond positively to disappointing losses.
"It's not ideal but we've been good at backing up after poor performances, and we've got to do that on Friday ... we've got to get back to our best footy and turn up against Cronulla with our best heads on, which we will," Pearce said after Saturday's game.
In his weekly Channel Nine analysis, former Johns highlighted the recurring trend of Newcastle losing to teams below them on the ladder.
As well as the Warriors, they have also suffered costly defeats this season at the hands of North Queensland and Canterbury.
"It's not a physical thing, it's a mental thing, because the teams this year that the Knights are expecting to beat, they're struggling with ... it's definitely a mental problem and a preparation problem," Johns said.
Johns suggested O'Brien should consider promoting Hoy.
