THERE was always going to be winners or losers in the battle to quell the coronavirus pandemic. Or perhaps more accurately, losers and even bigger losers.
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Undoubtedly one of the first industries to be crushed under the weight of the lockdown restrictions was live music and it's seemingly going to be among the last to resume its pre-pandemic level of activity.
A survey released this week from the Australian Live Music Business Council (ALMBC) delivered a sobering outlook.
Of the 600 small and medium-sized live music businesses surveyed, 70 per cent predicted they'd be forced to close in the next six months based on cashflow projections and current government support measures.
The ALMBC believes this will result in another 18,000 job losses nationally, on top of those already cut since March.
These job losses affect everyone from the musicians and the venue owners, through to booking agents, managers, sound and lighting technicians, publicists, caterers and even the guys who print the band t-shirts at the merch stand.
A loss of more than 75 per cent of income was also reported by 73 per cent of respondents in the survey and many recorded a 100 per cent decrease in revenue.
With projections such as these it's unsurprising that many stakeholders in the music industry are seething at the disparity in the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in NSW among entertainment industries.
From next weekend, right in time for the NRL finals series, stadiums will be permitted to operate at 50 per cent capacity. It means the likes of the 80,000-seat ANZ Stadium in Homebush could accommodate 40,000 people.
These job losses affect everyone from the musicians and the venue owners, through to booking agents, managers, sound and lighting technicians, publicists, caterers and even the guys who print the band t-shirts at the merch stand.
Here in Newcastle, the Knights are hopeful of hosting up to 15,000 fans at McDonald Jones Stadium if they earn a play-off against South Sydney.
Having attended several NRL games this season, social distancing is a fallacy. Sure, you're well separated in your seats, but the minute you walk off at half-time to use the toilet or grab a pie and beer, you inevitably rub shoulders or bump into someone in those small corridors.
Then there's shopping malls where, for months, shoppers - without restrictions or any form of contact tracing - have been permitted to wander about happily.
Not for a moment am I advocating a return to tighter restrictions for sporting events and shopping centres. They are essential to the economic recovery. Not to mention our mental health.
The same arguments apply to live music.
Newcastle's leading live music venues the Cambridge Hotel and Lizotte's reopened for shows in July and are restricted to 100 seated people. For the Cambridge that's one-eighth its usual capacity.
While the capped shows have been immensely popular and given a wealth of Newcastle talent such as dave the band, Cooks & Bakers and Rum Jungle an opportunity to sell-out gigs, the economics aren't stacking up.
Cambridge manager Dru Russell said 100-capacity shows had only covered the bare minimum of paying staff and artists.
"If it stays like that it'll cripple venues," Russell said. "Every venue won't survive. If the cap stays how it is, especially through summer.
"When you can get 40,000 into a football stadium, but you can't get 400 into a venue, how's that work?"
Within weeks the NSW Government is expected to launch its Great Southern Nights initiative, which will bring 1000 COVID-safe concerts to venues across NSW in November to reinvigorate the industry.
More than 60 Australian acts are part of the initiative, including Jimmy Barnes, Tones and I, Missy Higgins, Birds Of Tokyo, Sneaky Sound System and Tash Sultana.
Great Southern Nights will provide a welcome relief, but it's feared it'll only offer a short-term fix unless restrictions are eased further.
No major artist can sustain their career on 100-people shows, particularly after internet downloads and then streaming destroyed the traditional record sales revenue model more than a decade ago.
The music industry is naturally full of creative and resourceful people. The sheer number of livestream shows that have sprung up since March is testament to that.
But watching live performances through a screen isn't real music. It's being there in the room - the sights, sounds, and even, the smells.
Surely it's just as important as the footy.