IT'S a window into the future for Stockton beach if Deputy Premier John Barilaro fails to navigate a way through the NSW ban on offshore sand dredging.
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Possible options for the erosion-crippled beach are contained in a publicly-funded consultant's report that City of Newcastle and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment fought for months to keep secret.
The September 2018 report, obtained under freedom of information laws, is the most recent major assessment of the erosion problem before offshore sand dredging was officially on the table as a possible solution following the launch of the Newcastle Herald's Save Our Stockton campaign.
Known as the Stockton Coastal Management Synthesis Report, it outlines a series of possible solutions for the coastline, minus mass sand nourishment.
The most drastic action proposed is building seawalls along the entire beach, more than a two-kilometre stretch, from Stockton breakwater to Corroba Oval.
Stockton surf club life member Jimmy Newton said one long line of seawalls with no sand injection would "completely destroy" the beach.
"We've all got our hopes resting on bringing sand back onto the beach, I don't even want to contemplate what will happen if that fails," he said.
"More rock walls and no sand would be a disaster because the beach won't survive. People come to Stockton for it's beautiful beach. It will just be like a harbour. It feels like we are closer than ever before to getting a solution and we've been asking for decades."
Former environmental consultant Peter Jamieson, who spent years studying Stockton beach, has warned that without mass sand nourishment, seawalls would turn Stockton's coastline into an industrial port.
"It would look just like Queens Wharf, except it would have bigger waves crashing over the top of the rock wall," Mr Jamieson said.
"It would be a hell of a shame for Stockton and the Hunter region."
The final recommendation in the "confidential" report would see only small pockets of beach survive.
It is a combination of building more seawalls to protect assets, sand pumping from north Stockton beach, building a headland and retreating from the sea by sacrificing public land, at the caravan park and near the War Memorial.
Authored by consultants Royal HaskoningDHV - the report was commissioned to help council address concerns raised by the NSW Coastal Council during a review of the local government area's original Coastal Zone Management Plan (CZMP) that was developed in 2016.
Yet despite the report being handed to the NSW government in draft and completed form, it was never shown to the public.
Mr Newton said the likely reason was the storm surrounding the impact rock walls have had on the Stockton coastline and the strong community campaign for sand, not more walls.
He said it was hard to sit by and watch the operations of the world's largest coal port every day with the knowledge it was destroying the town's beach.
"There is so much money involved in coal royalties and the shipping operations and the beach never rates a mention," he said.
FULL SERIES: Save Our Stockton
Newcastle University's Conjoint Associate Professor in Earth Sciences Ron Boyd said there was currently no "good environmental options approved" in NSW for replacing the amount of sand lost off Stockton due to the Newcastle port operations.
The harbour breakwaters and deepening of the shipping channel for larger ships has severely impacted Stockton beach.
Over the past century south Stockton beach has lost more than 10 million cubic metres of sand and the seabed has dropped more than seven metres.
Associate Professor Boyd said the reservoir of sand that used to sit off Stockton and replenish the beach was "no longer there".
He said too much sand had been lost for the beach to recover and more rock walls was "not the answer".
"Wherever you put a rock wall, you can kiss the beach goodbye," he said.
"The only way to maintain beach in front of rock walls is putting sand there and limiting how fast it leaves. Unfortunately that has not been possible in Stockton."
Even council's most recent plan to deal with Stockton's coastline, which was approved by the NSW government in August, points to an unpopular conclusion for the beach without sand dredging.
"If mass sand nourishment cannot be achieved, further protection structures would be required to protect public assets as coastal recession continues," it states.
It's no revelation that increasingly governments, of all levels, have to be dragged kicking and screaming to release information that the public deserves to have access to.
The Newcastle Herald sought access to the 2018 ratepayer-funded, 116-page report under the Government Information Public Access Act (GIPAA) in March.
At the time, the council was rushing to complete its Coastal Management Plan (CMP), designed to look at long-term solutions for the beach under new legislation, and argued disclosure of the older report would "create confusion among the community".
The council and the NSW government also refused to reveal the name of the consultant who authored the 2018 report, claiming it contained "sensitive business and technical information".
In official responses, which echoed each other and arrived on the same day, the council and the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment said releasing the 2018 report would "provide an unfair advantage" to the then unnamed consultant's competitors.
Unknown to the community, it was the same consultant, Royal HaskoningDHV, that was at the time putting the CMP together.
It took the Newcastle Herald six months to get access to the 2018 report after an appeal to the Information and Privacy Commission NSW, which recommended the council and the state government make new decisions and release the report.
A council spokeswoman said the report was superseded because further detailed investigations were needed during the preparation of the 2018 Newcastle Coastal Zone Management Plan (CZMP), that was required to be certified by the NSW government to gain access to state funding for coastal projects.
"It was recognised that further detailed investigation, including current cost estimates, were required to develop a long-term strategy for Stockton that prioritised the community's desire for enhanced beach amenity in addition to the protection of public assets," she said.
After eventually releasing the 2018 report to the Newcastle Herald, it is now available on the council's website.
A meeting of Mr Barilaro's taskforce, established to address the Stockton erosion crisis and investigate lifting a ban on offshore sand dredging, will be held on Monday.
The taskforce, chaired by Mr Barilaro who is on a month's mental health leave, brings together government agencies, council representatives and community members to look at ways of funding and sourcing sand for Stockton.
It was formed earlier this year following community frustration at the lack of coordination between government and council.
Successive studies dating back to the 1970s have outlined the need for a long-term solution to the continuing erosion of sand.
Mr Barilaro, who is resources minister, has directed his agency to identify possible offshore sand that would be suitable to replenish Stockton beach and $1million has been set aside to fund the process.
A spokeswoman for Mr Barilaro said the process "has already begun to have the required exploration licence granted".
"The surveying work to identify the best sources of sand off Stockton is scheduled to commence by late November," she said.
"That work will continue into the new year. We hope to have a preferred sand source identified by mid-February."
In May, the council released the first draft of its much-anticipated CMP, which is the latest report on Stockton beach.
It put forward offshore sand nourishment as the only viable solution to get enough sand back on the beach, but it did not provide a pathway to mass sand nourishment.
The plan recommended spending $19 million over five years to address the erosion.
The majority of money, more than $12 million, was slated to be spent on building new seawalls, extending and maintaining the existing two rock walls and planning future seawalls.
Due to NSW's marine dredging ban, designed to lock out companies seeking construction sand for concrete, offshore sand nourishment could not be costed in the CMP's proposed actions.
Dr Ian Taggart, a research associate at the Newcastle University School of Engineering and a Stockton resident, said he believed there was a general lack of awareness about what the CMP was capable of delivering.
"The council is relying on John Barilaro's taskforce to come through and it's not a simple process," he said. "It remains aspirational, so the community needs to maintain its campaign."
It's estimated $21 million is needed for an initial mass offshore sand nourishment program that would deliver 2.4 million cubic metres of sand, followed by $12 million in maintenance every decade.
"Marine offshore mass nourishment has been identified as the only technically feasible and economically viable solution that meet City of Newcastle and the community's objectives for long-term sustainable management of beach amenity and coastal assets at Stockton," the CMP reads.
Associate Professor Boyd said "the politics" to get offshore dredging approved was the best it had ever been due to Mr Barilaro's strong support following a coordinated community campaign.
Stockton Surf Life Saving Club president Callan Nickerson said the club was gearing up for a late start to its nippers' season on November 1, due to the pandemic and to allow council more time to improve beach access after it was cut in July due to erosion.
Last year erosion forced the nippers competition to move to Little beach in Newcastle Harbour, but it will return to Stockton beach this year.
"The beach looks okay at the moment, there is enough sand to run activities if we time it with the tide but of course worsening conditions are always one storm away," Mr Nickerson said.
"It's a problem we are all too familiar with unfortunately."
Further up the beach, Hunter Water used heavy machinery this week north of Corroba Oval, near the old tip site, to remove more than 200 World War II tank traps exposed due to erosion.
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