Owners Australian Bloodstock believe a Melbourne Cup start is only a 50-50 proposition for Ashrun if he wins a place with victory in the Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 metres) at Flemington on Saturday.
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Ashrun was 28th in the order of entry for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup (3200m) and likely needs to win on Saturday to gain a start in the 24-horse $8 million race.
The winner of the Hotham Stakes secures an invitation into the Cup three days later, but only two horses - Shocking (2009) and Brew (2000) - have completed the double in more than 40 years.
Adding to the task for Ashrun this year is the increase in weights granted to jockeys because of COVID-19. It means the lightly-raced five-year-old import will have to carry top-weight of 61 kilograms to victory on Saturday then back-up in the gruelling staying test.
Hunter-based syndicators Australian Bloodstock won the 2014 Melbourne Cup with Protectionist and they teamed up again with German trainer Andreas Wohler this year with Ashrun hoping to repeat the feat. However, less than expected withdrawals have left them outside the field.
Ashrun was a $4 TAB favourite to win on Saturday after an impressive fourth in the Geelong Cup (2400m) but Australian Bloodstock director Jamie Lovett said victory was no guarantee of a start in Tuesday's race, where they already have the Kris Lees-trained Mustajeer in the field.
"He's not a 2400-metre horse so I think he was good enough [at Geelong] to say that if he got into a Melbourne Cup, he would run us a race, but it's just whether we get in, which is looking unlikely," Lovett said.
As for Ashrun's chances of backing up if he did win, Lovett said: "I'd say at best he'd be 50-50.
"He's not a horse who's ever done the quick back-up. He's hardly done three weeks, let alone three days, so he'd really have to please Andreas for us to consider it. But you never know, and he's got to win first."
Mustajeer, meanwhile, worked for the second time under cup jockey Michael Rodd at Sandown on Friday.
"They said he worked very well," Lovett said. "Michael Rodd was pleased with him, so he'll run Tuesday."
Lees also has Tactical Advantage in the group 2 TAB Stakes and Chief Ironside in the group 1 Cantala Stakes for Australian Bloodstock at Flemington on Saturday. The Lees-trained Zaniah runs in the group 3 Furphy Sprint.
Gary Harley reports: Consistent stayer Microna is set to break through for his first win in his 15th start on Saturday at Newcastle.
Runner-up in four of his past five starts, all on provincial tracks, Microna will line up in the opening event - the 1880-metre maiden plate.
Former Newcastle representative rugby union forward John Steinmetz, who is based at Warwick Farm, bred and trains the four-year-old.
Microna has been runner-up in two of his four Newcastle starts and both races were stronger than Saturday's. He was beaten 2-1/4 lengths by Tuesday's Cessnock Cup winner Unamerican on October 13.
He was beaten half a length at Wyong two starts back and run down late by Quintessa, which wasn't far away in a group 3 recently, at Gosford on August 28.
Kiwi jockey Alysha Collett retains the mount and Microna should enjoy a cosy run from the rails barrier.
"This horse was a real dope early in his career, however he is a different horse this prep," Steinmetz said.
"His form is outstanding for a race of this standard. Unamerican is pretty smart and Microna wasn't far away from him last start. Quintessa has raced well in Saturday company in town during the carnival and my bloke got within a length of her."
"A soft track would be OK but no worse.
"Newcastle is my favourite track and I love the city after spending years at Newcastle University many years back.
"A West Australian agent called me recently and made an offer to buy Microna but I knocked it back."
Kris Lees will saddle up well-fancied gallopers Always On Show, Triple Ace and Kiwi Riva Capri at the meeting.
Always On Show steps out in the 1250m maiden plate and Lees has removed the blinkers. The filly went too fierce up front when placed first-up at Newcastle two weeks back. Last prep she finished fourth in the group 3 Ken Russell at the Gold Coast behind the flying Wisdom Of Water.
Triple Ace is a fast three-year-old colt which contests the 900m class 1 handicap. He blitzed a 900m maiden field on this track two weeks ago and he will hit the ground running from barrier two.
Riva Capri resumes in the 1250m benchmark 64 handicap. The mare has prepared for her return with two quiet trials. Last prep she was beaten a long head by Earth Song on the Kensington track in May and she was placed at Warwick Farm in June. Riva Capri races best when fresh.