Events will increase tourism, cure unemployment, heal the sick and bring the dead back to life. Punters' wallets and purses will open and money will fly into the cash machines of struggling local merchants.

That's the promise. And events may also generate benefits that are not directly measurable in money terms, such as stimulating civic pride among locals. Or "putting a city on the map". Please God, no, not "the map". Anything but "the map".

However, the key contemporary argument used by politicians for committing public funds to events remains the promise of resultant economic benefits.

For example, Supercars brought in $30 million to the city over a weekend in 2018 according to research commissioned by the City of Newcastle (CoN). Critics pointed to some significant problems with the methodology used to arrive at that figure.

The World Surf League (WSL) event slotted for Merewether with an event window from April 1 - April 11 "is expected" to inject $15 million into the Newcastle economy, according to Lord Mayor Nuatali Nelmes.

Cr Nelmes told the Herald (Newcastle chosen to host prestigious World Surf League [WSL] championship tour event, Feb 6, 2021) she thought $15 million was "probably a conservative estimate".

Wow. A "conservative" estimate of $15 million. That's almost double the "up to" $8 million the Easter event - held annually since 1961 at Bells Beach in Victoria - pumps into Torquay, according to the figure regularly wheeled out by the apparatchiks in the border-shutting socialist republic of Victoria.

How much did CoN tip into Operation Honeypot that snared the WSL to Merewether? Sorry, that's commercial-in-confidence.

Hypothetically, if CoN invested - say, for example - $150k and the return to the local economy was - say, conservatively - an estimated $15 million, this is a magnificent decision that should be lauded throughout the land.

A return of $100 for every dollar invested?

Genius.

Of course, such a hypothetical doesn't take into account the NSW Government's financial contribution to the Merewether event. The government is also backing another WSL event at Narrabeen in Sydney.

But what precisely is the "commercial-in-confidence" justification for the CoN or the NSW government to not disclose its financial investment in the two WSL events?

How would such information benefit other professional surfing competitors when there aren't any?

The WSL is privately owned by American publishing tycoon Dirk Ziff. Forbes estimated his 2020 net worth at $5 billion. Maybe the Newcastle Jets should call him?

The greatest show on surf could be all done in Merewether in less than half of the 11 allocated days. If the surf is perf for first five days, the show would be down the M1 faster than a Supercar around an East End heritage site.

A major unknown in the formula of incoming benefits is the amount of after-event tourism an event generates, but this too is used as a key justification for tipping in taxpayer dollars.

However, the question of how to determine whether investments of public money in events are justified remains controversial.

Although there have been many attempts to do so in event-related literature during the past two decades, researchers around the world remain engaged in an ongoing debate about the most appropriate methodology for evaluating the economic impact of different types of events.

Inconsistencies are common.

Some researchers have stated that such inconsistencies are frequently due to political pressure.

For instance, Kesenne writes in European Sport Management Quarterly that "... many economic impact studies have been made in the interest of politicians and administrators who want to realise a (too expensive) sports project".

Similarly, Mondello and Rishe write in Economic Development Quarterly that "economic impact studies are undertaken not necessarily to provide an accurate assessment of the impact but rather to legitimise positions".

And Getz notes in the Journal of Applied Recreation Research that economic impact studies are "biased towards exaggeration of the economic benefits in order to gain credibility and support for organisers".

While CoN and the NSW Government insist on keeping our contribution to the upcoming WSL events confidential, they must release the economic impact evaluations after the events to allow everyone to see the methodology employed to demonstrate how and where a "conservative" pre-event estimate of $15 million bled its way into the veins of the local economy.

Otherwise, it's just more voodoo economics.

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