Two decades on from their last confrontation in a finals series, the Knights and Parramatta are preparing to go into battle again with their season on the line.
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Just as they were in the 2001 decider, the Eels are strong favourites and not without reason. When the two sides met for the only time this season in Newcastle back in June, the Knights were humiliated 40-4 in front of their premiership-winning Old Boys.
Then, just a fortnight ago, the Eels had everyone sitting up and taking notice again after they ended the long winning run of minor premiers Melbourne Storm to announce they were back as a serious premiership contender.
For their part, the Knights dug deep and played tough to win seven of their last 10 games to jump from 14th to finish 7th and deservedly secure their finals berth. But despite their gritty backs-to-the-wall efforts, much of the focus has been on the inadequacies of their spluttering attack coming in to this one.
WHY KNIGHTS WIN
They have been steeled by playing must-win games just about every week over the past two months just to reach the play-offs so the pressure of another do-or-die clash should not be an issue. Most of their big men are rested and in form, they have a decided advantage at dummy half through Jayden Brailey and they have genuine match-winners in Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best, who can give the Eels defence nightmares.
WHY EELS WIN
After most of their players had last weekend off, they should be firing on all cylinders and their power game and intensity over the course of 80 minutes may over-run the Knights. Mitch Moses' prodigious kicking game will ensure the Knights spend long periods of the game rucking it out from their own line with few opportunities to mount any lasting attacking pressure. Any forward dominance will nullify the Pearce and Ponga threat.
WHY KNIGHTS LOSE
The predictability of their attack and a lack of execution consistently with the footy under pressure in the opposition 20. Defensively, their edges remain their Achilles heel with both centres Kurt Mann and Bradman Best guilty of coming up with poor reads at times trying to jam in on the opposition. Injury concerns around Daniel Saifiti, David Klemmer and Jesse Sue leading into this game could be a factor if they are not close to 100 per cent and will be something the powerful Eels pack will try to exploit.
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WHY EELS LOSE
Ray Stone is a solid defender but not a recognised hooker and is no Reed Mahoney out of dummy half so the Eels won't be a threat in attack in that area which means the Knights can concentrate on the ball runners. Moses can be a matchwinner but he can also wilt under pressure in big games when the blow torch is on him and he'll be Mitch Barnett's target. The erratic Blake Ferguson can be like a deer in the headlights defensively so will see plenty of traffic his way while defence is not a strong point with Waka Blake either. There's no Maika Sivo threat on the wing either.
THE COACHES
Adam O'Brien: Two from two finals appearances for the man at the helm of the Knights which, given the club's record over the past decade, is a great way to kick off his coaching career in Newcastle. O'Brien has toughened the side's soft mentality with a strong emphasis on defensive resolve since arriving but the task now is finding an attacking game under the new rules that consistently challenges the heavyweights.
Brad Arthur: If you believed some of his critics a month ago, the Eels coach was in danger of being sacked. But a few weeks is a long time in the NRL and a win over the Storm a fortnight ago all of a sudden has them back as a premiership smokey. The knock on Arthur is his poor finals record. Has the chance to improve on that here.
KEY MATCH-UPS:
Ponga v Gutherson
Two of the game's premier fullbacks go head-to-head with both captains pivotal to their side's chances. So much of the Knights' attack is centred around the freakish talents of Kalyn Ponga. If Newcastle are on the front foot and Ponga is on song, look out Eels.
Clint Gutherson doesn't have Ponga's dazzling speed and footwork but what he does have is a passing game as good as any playmaker in the game and is generally flawless at the back under the high ball.
Best v Penisini
Bradman may be best but there is little doubt Eels teenage centre Will Penisini is a star on the rise. A year older and 26 games more experienced, Best is a beast to handle in attack but hasn't had the opportunities to show how dangerous he can be over the past few months thanks to a spluttering Knights attack.
Eels coach Brad Arthur has shown his enormous faith in 19-year-old Penisini, who is playing finals footy after just four NRL games ahead of the more experienced Tom Opacic.
Pearce v Moses
The two Mitches will be hugely influential in the outcome. Pearce has won eight of his 11 games for the Knights this season which highlights his importance to his team while the Eels don't look the same without Moses calling the shots.
Moses owns the biggest kicking game in the competition but there is no greater competitor than Pearce. The winner of this personal duel may be decided by who wins the forward battle.
Barnett v Brown
You can bet the two enforcers from their respective sides won't leave anything in the tank in this one. Mitch Barnett has been outstanding for the Knights over the past six weeks on the left edge and is the bloke to inspire his side with a big hit when they need a lift.
Nathan Brown takes every hit-up for the Eels in the middle like it's his last, coming off the back fence and ripping in without any fear of the consequences. Don't be surprised if there's not fireworks from both these two tough men when the contest heats up.
Saifiti/Saifiti v Paulo/Campbell-Gillard
The battle of the big men up front may be where the game is won and lost. NSW Blues Origin teammates Daniel Saifiti and Junior Paulo face off while tearaway props Jacob Saifiti and Reagan Campbell-Gillard will rip into each other.
Tellingly, Campbell-Gillard has missed the past five games for the Eels through injury while Daniel Saifiti is returning early from a knee medial tear after just three games out. Paulo's off-loading and the second phase he generates shapes as a big threat to the Knights.
VERDICT
The Eels are strong fancies and will come out hard and fast to try to blow the Knights off Browne Park in Rockhampton with their power game. If the Knights weather that early storm and put some heat of their own on Parramatta and turn it into a grinding dog fight, they will give themselves a great chance of an upset.
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