Australia's national energy grid is forecast to be coal-free by 2043, with governments urged to plan for early plant closures while ramping up cleaner alternatives.
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The Australian Energy Market Operator expects opportunities to electrify households and the transport sector, ramp up wind, solar generation and capacity to help deliver $29 billion in consumer benefits.
It examined scenarios around Australia's energy future and narrowed them down to the most likely nominated by industry stakeholders.
Under this "step change" scenario, 14 gigawatts of coal generation is likely to leave the market by 2030.
Plant closures are being announced or brought forward between two and three times faster than anticipated as renewables become cheaper.
AEMO anticipates coal capacity is likely to close as early as 2040 and the national energy market will operate without it by 2043 under this scenario.
It would require a substantial increase in battery and pumped-hydro storage, hydrogen or gas-fired generation to deal with peak demand.
By 2050, heating and transport would be electrified and the global manufacturing of regular internal-combustion vehicles all but ceased.
Wind and solar generation is expected to be nine times greater and the installation of solar photovoltaic capacity is set to quadruple.
"This transformation will efficiently deliver secure, reliable and affordable electricity while substantially contributing to national emissions objectives," AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman said.
"It is essential that communities, governments and industry collaborate to meet the aspirations of consumers and the communities that will host new infrastructure."
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute wants whoever wins the looming federal election to make investment in transmission infrastructure and a clean grid a top priority.
"We have the blueprint for how Australia can operate a coal power-free grid in a little over a decade," climate and energy director Richie Merzian said.
"We can now drop the farce, once and for all, that coal power stations will operate to their full retirement age."
Australia's industry body representing electricity and national gas businesses has called for adequate planning and resources to deal with the inevitable disruption.
"Electrification is an immediate and obvious way to decarbonise, and the technology is readily and economically available; such as heat pumps and electric vehicles," chief executive Sarah McNamara said.
"We just need policies, initiatives, and the will to see it happen."
AEMO's final plan for what Australia's energy future could look like is expected in June.
The Morrison government has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, but insists Australia's coal industry will continue for decades.
Australian Associated Press
