At the time, the Newcastle Knights were doing it tough.

Mitchell Pearce was recovering from surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle. Kalyn Ponga was also on the sidelines with a groin injury.

A host of others were wounded and unavailable.

Not surprisingly, this was reflected in their results. The Knights had won only five of 14 games and were languishing in 14^th position on the competition ladder.

All but their most diehard supporters had written them off as a lost cause, destined to finish a disappointing campaign with the also-rans.

But for some reason the odds TAB were offering for them to make the final eight - $5 - caught my eye.

I had a quick look at the draw and did the maths (never my best subject).

By my calculations, they needed to win seven of their remaining 10 games.

Two of those fixtures were against Melbourne and Sydney Roosters, which effectively reduced it to seven out of eight.

A tall order, I figured, but stranger things have happened.

I wavered right up until kick-off before their next game, at home against the Warriors, and discussed it with my good mate and former colleague Brett Keeble in the media box.

"You're kidding," he said. "You wouldn't do it to yourself."

I decided Keebs was right and refrained from outlaying my hard-earned. And from that moment, the Knights were of course a deadset certainty to reach the play-offs.

Sure enough, they eked out an ugly 10-6 win against the Warriors, hammered North Queensland 38-0 a week later, lost (as predicted) the games against the Storm and Roosters, and proceeded to string together five successive victories to seal their spot in the finals a week ahead of schedule.

They did it so easily, coach Adam O'Brien rested half his team before the last-round clash with Brisbane because the result would have no bearing on their final placing. For the second season in a row, the Knights finished seventh.

And instead of laughing all the way to the bank, this columnist was kicking himself. But I wasn't about to make the same mistake twice.

After the Knights were slaughtered 39-2 and 50-2 by Parramatta and Melbourne respectively a few weeks ago, I checked their odds with TAB. They were paying $9 to make the eight, which many would consider "unders", given they were residing in the competition cellar.

I'll give them a week, I decided, because they won't beat the Cowboys up in Townsville. True to form, they copped a 36-16 defeat and drifted out to $11.

At this point, I had my first wager since last year's Melbourne Cup donation and invested $20 on Newcastle to make the finals.

By my estimation, they needed to win their next two games, against Canterbury and the Broncos, to be a realistic chance.

A 16-6 win against the Bulldogs in Magic Round was a step in the right direction, although it didn't fill me with confidence.

Then came last week's 36-12 loss at home against Brisbane, and they're back where they were a couple of weeks ago, paying $11 to make the finals and ahead of only hapless Canterbury on the ladder.

But for some crazy reason, I still maintain it's not a bad bet. (Always gamble responsibly).

Despite losing eight of their past nine games, the Knights are, inexplicably, only four points adrift of the top eight.

As Canberra have shown, it takes just a few weeks to surge up the points table.

After three wins from their first 11 games, I'd suggest Newcastle need another nine victories from the remaining 13 rounds.

Twelve wins or thereabouts is usually the finals cut-off. It's still a big ask, but far from Mission: Impossible.

There's not much margin for error, admittedly, but two factors are providing me with some reassurance.

First and foremost, the Knights' injury toll appears to be abating, although the loss of Bradman Best for at least a month is an untimely setback.

Earlier in the season, there were games when a quick glance at their squad, on paper, was enough to leave fans suffering insomnia.

The roster this week, for mine, looks decent. Best, hooker Jayden Brailey and utility Kurt Mann are probably the only first-choice players missing, and in Enari Tuala, Chris Randall and Phoenix Crossland, O'Brien has some handy replacements.

Then just run your eye over Newcastle's draw: Warriors (away), Penrith (home), Canberra (away), Gold Coast (home), South Sydney (home), Manly (away), Roosters (home), Bulldogs (home), Wests Tigers (away), Broncos (home), Titans (away) and Cronulla (home).

Remember, they can probably afford to drop four of those games.

I don't think it's unrealistic. I guess it depends whether you believe the Knights are where they deserve to be on the ladder, because they're a mediocre team, or whether they've been underachieving.

I subscribe to the latter school of thought.

Hence, unlike last year, I've put my money where my mouth is.

But at the end of the day, it probably doesn't matter what I think, or you think.

It comes back to what the players think. And if they still believe in themselves, anything is possible.

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