The NSW Liberal Party has opened nominations for the March state election as Labor eyes off a shot at ending 12 years in exile.
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All nine incumbent Hunter state MPs are expected to saddle up again, and it would be a surprise if any of them lost their jobs.
Labor holds seven of the Hunter seats and is unlikely to flip either Upper Hunter or Lake Macquarie, which veteran independent Greg Piper will contest again.
The Nationals' Dave Layzell won the Upper Hunter by-election last year with a 5.8 per cent margin, which should be enough to survive a minor boundary redistribution last year by the NSW Electoral Commission.
Port Stephens, held by Kate Washington, is the only Hunter seat even approaching marginal territory.
The Liberals' Brooke Vitnell, who achieved a 1.7 per cent swing against Labor incumbent Maryl Swanson in the federal seat of Paterson in May, would not be drawn on whether she would take on Ms Washington.
The 1.7 per cent swing to Ms Vitnell in Paterson compared with a 3.2 per cent swing to Labor across NSW.
"My focus right now is re-establishing my family law, wills and estates and property law practice in Medowie and Port Stephens and spending time with my husband and family," Ms Vitnell said on Wednesday.
A Liberal source said the party would mount a serious challenge for the seat, despite Ms Washington's 5.7-point margin.
We'll always have a good crack at Port Stephens because we feel it's an area we should be representing.
- Liberal source
"We'll always have a good crack at Port Stephens because we feel it's an area we should be representing," the source said.
Labor, which has opened preselection in some electorates, faces a stiff challenge to pick up the 10 seats it needs to form government in its own right. A party source said governing in minority was Labor's only realistic hope.
Mr Piper again shapes as a potential king maker if either party needs help from independents to reach the 47 seats required to control the lower house.
He was in the same position before the 2019 election, but the Coalition won enough seats to govern in its own right until it lost two MPs to the crossbench.
A Labor source said the party would use the seven remaining parliamentary sitting weeks before the election to target cost-of-living pressures, energy privatisation, government debt and the controversial appointment of former Deputy Premier John Barilaro to a $500,000-a-year trade commissioner role in New York.
"It could bring down the Premier," the source said of the Barilaro controversy, though a Liberal MP said he was confident leader Dominic Perrottet would survive.
One Liberal source said challenges from so-called teal independents could pose a bigger headache, especially in blue-ribbon Sydney electorates.
The "teals" now occupy six seats in federal Parliament and helped bring down the Morrison government after campaigning on climate change, an integrity commission and the treatment of women.
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