Report: Newcastle and Maitland dwelling sales decline 20.8 per cent in the 12 months to August

CoreLogic's Quarterly Regional Market Update shows the number of dwelling (house and unit) sales in Newcastle and Maitland declined by 20.8 per cent in the 12 months to August.

There were 8702 dwelling sales recorded in the region over that period which was 19.1 per cent below the five-year average.

Stock levels recorded a slight uptick over the last month.

In October, there were 2557 properties listed for sale, up from 1.8 per cent in the same period last year but down 9.2 per cent compared with the previous five-year average.

Despite a drop in sales, the median number of days on market in the three months to October remained unchanged at 36 days compared with one year ago (36 days).

Vendor discounting in Newcastle and Maitland fell a median of 3.2 per cent over the last quarter, down from -4.6 per cent 12 months ago (October 2022).

Meanwhile, the median dwelling value in Newcastle and Maitland sits at $773,820 with growth of 1 per cent over the last quarter to October and an annual change of 2.2 per cent.

Overall, values increased 47 per cent over the last five year period.

"The Newcastle and Maitland region has seen fairly modest value growth over the three months to October," CoreLogic economist and report author Kaytlin Ezzy said.

"Compared to other regional NSW markets, this came in fairly middle of the road, below the strong gains seen in Lismore (4.3 per cent) and St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point (3.9 per cent)."

While values in the region are still 4.3 per cent below the previous peak recorded in May 2022, Ms Ezzy said dwelling values across Newcastle have risen 2.1 per cent since December 2022, when values found a floor.

"Although still tracking up, the pace of quarterly growth has eased as supply levels have normalised," she said.

"While still around 10 per cent below the typical level for sales listing seen this time of year, this is up from a shortfall of around 15 per cent in June.

"As total listing levels rise and buyers are given more choices, we expect the pace of growth to continue to ease."

Rental values continued to rise with the Newcastle and Maitland region recording a median rent value of $605 per week, up 0.1 per cent over the last quarter.

This marked an annual growth of 3.8 per cent and a five-year change of 33.1 per cent growth.

Meanwhile, Newcastle and Maitland's vacancy rate sits at 1 per cent which falls just under 1.1 per cent recorded one year ago.

There was a total of 1873 dwellings listed for rent in the region, which was 8.2 per cent lower than one year ago and 21.4 per cent below the five-year average.

After recording stronger growth and milder declines through the recent cycles, the analysis of Australia's regional housing markets shows many areas have lagged their capital city counterparts over the past year.

Rising interest rates, higher cost of living pressures and normalising internal migration patterns appear to have hit the regions harder, according to Ms Ezzy.

Since bottoming out in January, values across the combined capitals have risen to new record highs, while the combined regional market remains 2.5 per cent below the peak recorded in May 2022.

Following the RBA's decision to lift the cash rate another 25 basis points and the upwards revision in inflation forecasts, Ms Ezzy said there was a good chance of softer housing market conditions ahead.

"We're already seeing an easing in the pace of monthly growth across our largest cities, and this is a trend we can expect to see playing out more broadly at least until interest rates top out," she said.

"Higher interest rates, higher housing prices, higher rents and high cost of living pressures are likely to weigh on buyer sentiment leading into 2024."

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