As the NSW Parliament prepares to vote on a bill giving the terminally ill the right to end their lives with medical assistance, a new poll has found widespread support for such a proposal including 70 per cent of Coalition voters.
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The Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill will next month be introduced to the state's upper house where, if passed by a conscience vote, it will be referred to the lower house where Coalition MPs have a clear majority.
A poll of more than 1000 Australians conducted by Essential Media this month found 73 per cent of voters supported allowing people experiencing "unrelievable suffering" to choose to die with a doctor's help.
About 70 per cent of Coalition voters supported the issue and 78 per cent of Labor voters. Only 15 per cent of voters were opposed and 12 per cent undecided.
Senior MPs on both sides of the argument are increasingly predicting a "photo finish" or narrow passage through the upper house that exposes divisions within the major parties.
NSW Nationals MLC Trevor Khan, who will deliver the second reading speech on the bill next month, said he expected a slim majority in the upper house despite anticipated opposition from key cross-bench MLCs from the Christian Democrats and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
"It's tight, but at this stage we've got the numbers," he said.
The poll showed greater support for assisted dying among older voters; 81 per cent of those over the age of 55 were supportive, compared to 68 per cent of voters aged below 35.
"This information should help to inform MPs who will be voting on voluntary assisted dying," Sarah Edelman of Dying with Dignity NSW, which commissioned the research, said. "It is clear that the vast majority of Australians want a change in the law."
A number of Labor MLCs are expected to oppose the bill, limited to terminally patients in "extreme pain, suffering or physical incapacity" including opposition health spokesman Walt Secord and outspoken Catholic Labor MLC Greg Donnelly.
"I simply do not believe that the NSW Parliament can put sufficient safeguards and protections in place," said Mr Secord, who added his objections were legislative, not religious.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has not declared her position on the issue but has guaranteed coalition MPs a free vote.
A senior government source said coalition MPs' votes would be difficult to predict until the bill underwent potential amendments. But conservative MPs would also face competing influences from their own experience with terminal illness sufferers, religious views and campaigns from churches in their electorates, the source said.
"I think it's a real unknown," agreed Liberal MP Kevin Conolly, a Catholic MP who believes assisted dying legalisation could cause patients to feel undue pressure and false choice.
The Catholic Church has in the past week mobilised a grassroots campaign with parishioners.
A spokeswoman for the Anglican Sydney Diocese, Karin Sowada also confirmed that church would join a campaign.
"There is no safe 'assisted dying' regime that can protect the vulnerable," she said. "The Anglican Church will continue its long-standing role in this debate, joining like-minded community groups to oppose [it]."
Formal debate on the bill will begin in upper house in early October.
Under the bill, devised by a cross-party working group of MLCs, patients must be over 25, likely to die of their illness within 12 months, and have approval of two medical practitioners. The patient must also be assessed by an independent psychiatrist or psychologist.
Nationals MPs have been running informal polls and forums in electorates to gauge public opinion.
"You can't take outcomes for granted," Mr Khan said. "But this poll reflects what [many] Nationals MPs are being told on the ground."
The statistically weighted poll of 1032 Australian voters was drawn from an Essential Media online survey database of 100,000 voters, most of whom were recruited offline.
The estimated margin of error is three percentage points.
Paul Russell of Hope, a collection of groups opposed to voluntary assisted dying, said its own polling showed when respondents' were told there was "no consensus among medical professionals, with palliative care as the alternative" support dropped to 51 per cent.
"Most of the community have little idea of what is really going on with this issue," he said.
