KNIGHTS coach Nathan Brown might have been disappointed with his team's 34-4 loss to Melbourne Storm at AAMI Park last weekend, but I suspect that deep down inside he was not completely surprised.
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Like most coaches, Brown is by nature a realist, and while he will have been heartened by the six-game winning streak that lifted his team, temporarily, into the top four, he also knows better than anyone that they are a long way from the finished product.
Melbourne were lying in ambush on their home turf, just waiting to put the NRL's big improvers in their place, and they ruthlessly doused cold water on the Knights' recent hot streak.
Without wanting to detract from Newcastle's impressive turnaround - after losing five straight games between rounds two and six - perhaps certain results have flattered them.
At Mudgee in round 10, the Knights thrashed St George Illawarra 45-12, and much as Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and company were on fire, the Dragons were awful.
I reckon most teams in the NRL would have beaten them that day.
A week later, Newcastle shocked defending premiers Sydney Roosters 38-12, but the premiers gambled by resting champion halfback Cooper Cronk and then lost Luke Keary to concussion early in proceedings.
Without their two on-field generals, the Roosters crashed to their heaviest loss in almost two years.
It was a similar story a week later, when the Knights won 20-12 against a South Sydney side minus playmakers Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker, and with skipper Sam Burgess carrying a shoulder injury that has since required surgery.
In saying that, the Knights were without key men David Klemmer and Kalyn Ponga. And as they say, you can only beat who's in front of you, and for six consecutive games, Newcastle did that convincingly.
Then came the trip to Melbourne, where many teams have learned harsh lessons over the past 15 years.
I doubt if Brown was particularly worried about the result.
He would have more cause for concern if he felt Newcastle played well and were still spanked by 30 points. Instead, the Knights were error-riddled and tentative and never really gave themselves a chance.
Mind you, the Storm are masters in forcing their opponents to play like that.
Melbourne are so dominant around the rucks that few teams will overpower them. The secret to success is moving the ball and trying to find chinks in their armour, but to do so increases the likelihood of handling errors.
A few early Newcastle fumbles allowed the Storm to grab the initiative, and history suggests that they rarely surrender it.
With the benefit of hindsight, the Knights were probably due for an off day. Indeed, it could well prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Brown and his men will now return to the drawing board, regroup, and endeavour to bounce back in positive fashion after this week's bye.
This is the best position Newcastle have occupied at this point in the season since 2013, the last time they made the play-offs.
Fifth on the ladder (although they have one win fewer than sixth-placed Manly), they have emerged from what would appear the toughest phase of their draw and have a favourable run into the finals.
The next three games, at home to Brisbane, the Warriors and Canterbury, all appear winnable, although Newcastle will lose their Origin representatives for the Warriors' visit.
Then come the Roosters (away), Wests Tigers (home), Manly (away), Parramatta (away), North Queensland (home), Tigers (away), Gold Coast (home) and Penrith (away). Of those 11 games, 10 are against teams below Newcastle on the points table.
Obviously nothing can be taken for granted, but if the Knights can rekindle the form they showed leading into their loss to Melbourne, a top-eight finish should be their bare-minimum ambition.
Finishing inside the top six would ensure a home final, the first one at Turton Road since 2006, Andrew Johns's last full season. And if they were to win seven or eight of those games, a top-four spot might not be beyond them.
In many ways, Brown's team are starting to resemble their Newcastle counterparts of the mid-1990s.
They have two State of Origin props (Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti), just as the Knights once had Paul Harragon and Mark Sargent.
They have arguably the best halfback in the competition in Mitchell Pearce, who is doing his best to impersonate Joey Johns.
They have a Queensland Origin fullback in Kalyn Ponga, who seems set to reach even greater heights than club legend Robbie O'Davis.
And in Queensland lock Tim Glasby, they have a no-frills quiet achiever in the Tony Butterfield mode.
The support case is fairly handy, too, just quietly.
The challenge for Newcastle now is to take last week's loss in their stride. Assess what went wrong, and rectify it against Brisbane next week.
Store memories of that loss away in the back of the mind, for future reference, and use it as a benchmark.
The Knights know what to expect if they play Melbourne again this season. The Storm are yet to see the best of Newcastle, and that could be the ace up coach Brown's sleeve.