Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has again warned restrictions imposed by the Victorian government to contain a second wave COVID-19 outbreak is having a devastating impact on the national economy.
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Treasury analysis shows this is most notable when it comes to unemployment and household spending.
It shows the number of Victorians on unemployment benefits has significantly increased with the impost of stage four restrictions, while numbers in other states have declined.
And Treasury expects more Victorians will be accessing the JobKeeper wage subsidy in the December and March quarters than every other state combined.
At the same time, household spending in Victoria is down more than 30 per cent while the rest of Australia is only down around three per cent.
Mr Frydenberg, himself a Victorian who has condemned Premier Daniel Andrews' handling of a second wave virus outbreak, says the accommodation and hospitality sector has borne the brunt of the restrictions.
Spending on dining and takeaway is down more than 60 per cent and in the accommodation sector more than 80 per cent.
"Restrictions imposed by the Victorian government have had a devastating impact on the economy," Mr Frydenberg said on Monday.
"As we have seen in other states, if you can successfully suppress the virus, jobs will return."
He said the Morrison government will continue to do all it can to support Victorians during this challenging time.
The economic performance of the whole Australian economy will be detailed when the June quarter national accounts are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.
Economists' forecasts centre on a 6.0 per cent contraction in output during the June quarter - which would be the biggest quarterly decline since the ABS started collating the data in the late 1950s.
This would follow a 0.3 per cent decline in the March quarter.
If the June quarter number is a contraction, as expected, this will confirm Australia in a technical recession which is measured by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
It will be Australia's first recession in nearly 30 years.
Australian Associated Press