YouGov climate survey: Newcastle and Hunter voters back transition from coal for economy

An overwhelming number of voters also want the Federal Government to do more to tackle climate change.

The YouGov poll of more than 15,000 voters, conducted for the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF), revealed a groundswell of voters prioritising climate change as a key election issue in response to longer droughts and heat waves, bushfires and damaging floods.

The survey revealed 58 per cent of the voters surveyed in the Seat of Hunter, 63 per cent in Shortland, 68 per cent in Newcastle and 59 per cent in Paterson said climate change was an important consideration in their voting preference.

Likewise, 64 per cent of the voters surveyed in Hunter, 64 per cent in Shortland, 71 per cent in Newcastle and 64 per cent in Paterson said the government should do more on climate change.

Commenting on the results, Hunter Jobs Alliance coordinator Warrick Jordan cautioned that community sentiment on climate and energy in the Hunter was more complex than a simple pro or anti coal debate.

"The results of the poll aren't surprising and there is more to this than the political aspect. What is most important here is what governments do about the inevitable changes in energy production that are affecting regional communities, positively and negatively," Mr Jordan said.

"Half-decent policy needs to recognise the reality - there's a consistent majority who want to see more done on climate change, but for others it's a lower order priority. People keep telling us they have had enough of the hot air and want politicians to focus on dealing with the reality of change"

Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon, whose electorate contains a significant proportion of people in the coal mining and power generation industries said the findings were not surprising.

"I'm a strong supporter of the net-zero emissions target. That's why I'm so pleased that in the Hunter we are leading the country in renewable energy development," he said.

"But it doesn't mean we have to unnecessarily forsake other opportunities including the ongoing strength of the coal mining sector.

"This is not a debate about one or the other."

Regarding Australia's evolving energy mix, 34 per cent of those surveyed in Hunter, 26 per cent in Shortland, 29 per cent in Newcastle and 32 per cent in Paterson were supportive of fossil fuels in the energy mix.

Nationally, 71 per cent of voters do not see coal and gas as part of Australia's future energy mix, with a majority in every seat rejecting plans for the government to build new gas and coal-fired power plants, such as the proposed gas-fired peaker plant at Kurri Kurri.

Paterson MP Meryl Swanson more bipartisan cooperation was needed to develop strong climate and energy policies.

"People need to be kept in their jobs but we do need action [on climate change] and people know we need action," she said.

"People don't want their jobs to be cast aside, they don't want their industry to be spoken about negatively because it [coal] is making a contribution and an important contribution but at the end of the day the government needs a plan.

"If they had taken energy as seriously as they took COVID-19 we would be a lot further down the track."

Ms Swanson is also a supporter of the proposed $600 million Kurri gas-fired peaking plant.

"It's a bit like home insurance, you don't need it until you do," she said.

"My support for that peaker is because I am pro-jobs and industry in my area. I'm not anti-climate. All I'm saying is I don't want a manufacturer like Tomago Aluminium to fall over.

"Sometimes we have to hedge our bets and have something that may not be the ultimate solution but it is a key component in what we need at the moment."

Shortland MP Pat Conroy said taking positive action on climate change aligned with new opportunities in emerging industries.

"If we do not [take action], we will miss out on new jobs and industries, face carbon tariffs on our existing industries and see the crippling economic damage of bigger floods, storms and bushfires," he said.

'People want the government to commit to Net Zero Emissions. Labor has already committed to this and announced the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund and $15 National Reconstruction Fund to modernise the grid and grow new manufacturing industries in things like battery manufacturing and electric vehicles."

Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive Kelly O'Shanassy said Australia was a diverse nation in many respects, however, it was united in its desire for climate action.

"It's time for the Morrison government to get on with building clean industries and jobs for Australians and cutting climate pollution this decade."

The poll used multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) analysis for the first time in Australia, after the technique's success in predicting the results of the 2019 British election.

The MRP tool combines census data such as population density, education and household income with polling data to construct an estimate of how issues would play out in that specific geographical area.

It allows for the poll to be broken down by electorates as well as demographics in a statistically reliable way.

"MRP is based on the understanding that people with similar characteristics behave in similar ways and it allows us to paint a much more detailed picture using our polling data," YouGov Associate Director Ben Oxenham said

"This substantial poll shows that there are a range of factors that contribute to voters' attitudes to climate change action, as well as where they live."

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