Sunday, October 3

Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs at Suncorp Stadium, 6.30pm (AEST)

Played: 88, Panthers won 40, Rabbitohs won 47, one drawn

Most recent match: Rabbitohs bt Panthers 16-10 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in qualifying final

Premierships: Panthers 2, Rabbitohs 21

Grand-final history: Nil

THE FORM

* Penrith (H&A second, 21 wins, three losses). Coach Ivan Cleary describes his young team as battle-hardened after having to do it the hard way in the finals. The Panthers are still not at their best in attack but their defence is the best of any team this season. They have conceded less than 12 points a game this year and that record will be big come Sunday.

* South Sydney (H&A third, 20 wins, four losses). Enter as the form team after shocking Penrith in week one and dismantling Manly in the preliminary final. Confidence from beating the Panthers earlier in the month is mitigated somewhat by the fact they lost their previous four to Penrith and conceded 50 against them earlier in the year in Dubbo.

THE KEY MATCHUPS

* Nathan Cleary (Penrith), Cody Walker (South Sydney): The two maestros will have the bulk of responsibility for their respective sides on Sunday night. Individually they've been outstanding in their own right this season - Cleary for his kicking game, composure and win rate (he's only lost one game across NRL and State of Origin all season), and Walker for his near-record 37 try assists and creativity in attack.

* Isaah Yeo (Penrith), Cameron Murray (South Sydney): They're in no way the flashiest players on the field, but the two opposing No.13s are the heartbeat of their respective teams. The NSW Origin teammates are similar in their work ethic and ball-playing ability, but most importantly they're both water-tight in defence and lead the way for their packs. Their match-up in the middle and how ruthlessly they apply kick pressure will go a long way to determining the winner on Sunday.

THE STORYLINES

* Premiership redemption (Penrith): After a record-breaking 17-straight wins into the 2020 decider, coach Cleary was forced to admit his young Panthers side simply weren't ready to win a premiership after they were beaten 26-20 by Melbourne. Another year on and with the pain still burning, they're a tougher team for the experience. An amazing bond between the group of local juniors has again delivered Penrith to within one win of the premiership. Halves Jarome Luai and Cleary have a wicked strike rate too. Across all NYC, NRL and State of Origin games, they've won 55 of 58 games they've been partnered together since the start of under-20s.

* Farewell to Adam Reynolds and Wayne Bennett (South Sydney): The master coach gets a 10th grand final in his third year at the club and can sign off a winner before handing over to Jason Demetriou next year. The Rabbitohs' run to the decider makes Bennett the first man to coach four clubs in grand finals. He is almost certain to coach in the NRL again in charge of the 17th franchise, but it would be a fitting way for Bennett to head into his first gap year with a premiership. After a 10-year NRL career at Souths, club junior Reynolds will play his last game in the red and green before heading to Brisbane next season. A fairytale finish for the departing skipper is deserved.

THE STATS

* Penrith's defence has been the best of any team since Melbourne in 2007 for the past two years, conceding a miserly 11.9 points per game in 2020 and 2021. The Panthers have used it to bail them out of trouble in each of the past two finals, and it will be difficult for South Sydney to penetrate on Sunday.

* Six of the past seven runners-up to make the following year's grand final have won. That bodes well for a Penrith team who have constantly leaned on the pain of the 2020 loss to Melbourne to motivate them this season.

* Blake Taaffe has had no problem slotting in for Latrell Mitchell at fullback for South Sydney. In his three games there since Mitchell's ban, Taaffe has set up four tries while chiming in nicely as part of the Rabbitohs' potent edges on both sides of the field.

* The Rabbitohs' defence is far superior to what it appears. While South Sydney ranked third for defence on this year's ladder, they have averaged just 13.9 points per game against them since round 20. That includes only letting Penrith score one try in their qualifying-final win over their grand-final rivals.

Australian Associated Press