Surging prices are forecast to propel Australia's annual thermal coal exports to a record $45 billion this financial year, almost $20 billion more than the previous peak.
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The government's Resources and Energy Quarterly publication shows thermal and metallurgical coal exports will exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2021-22 as the conflict in Ukraine, rising demand and logistical pressures drive global prices higher.
Iron ore is the only other resources or energy export to have eclipsed $100 billion in a year.
"The recent surge in coal prices has provided important benefits to coal producers, adding to revenue at the start of a potentially unstable 2022," the report says.
The March publication predicts Australian resources and energy export earnings will reach a record $425 billion this financial year before falling back to $370 billion in 2022-23.
The report, prepared by the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, forecasts thermal coal exports to slip to $35 billion next financial year, then $22 billion in 2023-24 and $18 billion the year after.
The Newcastle benchmark price for thermal coal is forecast to drop from a high of $US184 a tonne in 2022 to $US106 next year and $US81 in 2024.
"International coal and gas/LNG prices are at record levels, on the back of both supply and demand factors, which promises to boost Australia's export earnings sharply in the short term," the report says.
"However, these high prices will impact growth in nations that are net fossil fuel consumers and provide an incentive to minimise exposure to a range of energy sources.
"The global drive towards low-carbon energy sources and a sharp decline in the coal plant construction pipeline has changed incentives for investors and miners, deterring long-term investment in coal despite the recent surge in prices."
The Newcastle Herald reported on Saturday that 21 coalmining projects were in the planning pipeline in the Hunter, the nation's largest exporter of thermal coal.
Resources Minister Keith Pitt welcomed the latest forecast in the Resources and Energy Quarterly.
"Coal is making a significant contribution to a very successful year for the Australian resources and energy sector," he said.
"The latest report has found that soaring demand and high prices for Australia's coal, gas and oil will be a key contributor to our total resources and export earnings surging to a record-high $425 billion."
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Michael Parris
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
