Further delays to Australia's defence projects and the slow delivery of nuclear powered-submarines would be the "greater danger" threatening the strength of the AUKUS security pact.
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Richard Fontaine, a former advisor to Senator John McCain and visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute, said there was "huge support" in Washington for the partnership, which is seen to be offering great "value" in increasing regional capability.
The agreement between Australia, the UK, and US, is more than just boats and includes quantum technologies and artificial intelligence.
But the senior US foreign policy analyst warned the "greater danger" to AUKUS did not come from an unenthusiastic new leader wanting to leave the partnership.
"It's more that it ends up being seen as less successful than the grand ambitions at the beginning," he said.
"The subs take a long time, or while the subs are taking a long time, you're not able to get other projects that are kind of your early wins on the advancing capability side in the next two or three or four years."
The nuclear-powered vessels are not expected to arrive until 2040.
Meanwhile, Australia's plan to buy strike fighter jets and other warplanes has blown out by billions of dollars, with one project more than a decade behind schedule.
Defence Minister Richard Marles has provided a breakdown of the troubled acquisitions as he reviews all military spending.
The data reveals F-35 jets are more than $2.3 billion over budget, while the P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft has an overspend of almost $1.8 billion, as well as major delays.
An electronic jet project is almost $865 million over budget, Spartan transport planes $270 million, multi-role helicopters $250 million - and a decade behind schedule - and Seahawk helicopters $190 million.
The Collins class submarines have also drained $370 million more than expected while accruing nine years of delays.
"Defence will be an increasing pressure on the budget," Mr Marles told the ABC's 7.30 program.
"We need to be doing business in a different way. We need to be actively managing defence procurement. We need to have stability in defence."
Despite the overspend, the minister noted it would not have a massive impact on the upcoming budget's bottom line but would hit in the middle of the decade.
"I don't think you will see a dramatic difference in the coming budget. These are pressures presenting themselves to us over the medium term," Mr Marles said.
The defence minister didn't detail the cost of the upcoming purchase of nuclear-propelled submarines, which haven't been included in the budget's forward estimates.
But Mr Marles said the costs would be balanced against the money set aside for the cancelled French attack class submarine contract.
His projection of an increase in defence spending to more than 2.2 per cent over the course of the decade didn't include the nuclear submarines.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton pointed the finger at the previous Labor government for not spending enough on defence.
"Labor is trying to create a distraction," Mr Dutton said.
"They just don't have a feather to fly with here."
Australian Associated Press
