THE LA NINA and Indian Ocean Dipole negative weather events that have combined to contribute to Australia's soaking 2022 show no immediate signs of breaking down.
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However, there is a small silver lining with the Bureau of Meteorology saying in its climate driver update that the IOD negative could break down rapidly before the end of the year and that La Nina conditions may fade back to neutral by early 2023.
At present key La Nina drivers such as Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain above La Nina thresholds.
In the Indian Ocean, the IOD index continues to satisfy negative IOD thresholds of 0.4 °C required to constitute an IOD negative event.
The current IOD negative event has been in place since June, however the Bureau said models it used indicated that it was only likely to persist into late spring before rapidly decaying.
Outside the major two climate drivers, the Bureau noted the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was currently in a neutral phase.
However, in further negative news for those looking for a sunny break in the constant rain, the SAM is likely to return to a positive phase during November and remain generally positive into early summer.
The Bureau said during the spring and summer months, a positive SAM increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, and south-eastern Queensland, and increases the chance of below average rainfall for western Tasmania.
IN OTHER NEWS:
In the north of the country, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which starts to have a greater influence on weather over warmer months, is currently active over the western Pacific Ocean.
Most models indicate the pulse is likely to track slowly eastwards across the western Pacific region at moderate strength over the coming fortnight.
The MJO's influence at this time of the year may lead to above-average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia, and briefly reduce the strength of equatorial trade winds west of the Date Line.
Averages in the models used by the Bureau show La Nina still in place in November, around thresholds in January and back into neutral territory by March.
In terms of the IOD, the models say it will be around thresholds in November before being firmly in neutral territory by January.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
