The Greens say they have a realistic chance of winning the state and federal seats of Newcastle in the next five years based on their stunning victories in Brisbane in the 2022 election.
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NSW upper house MP Abigail Boyd was bullish about the Greens' prospects in Newcastle during a visit on Thursday to discuss the party's policy to return the city's private transport network to public hands.
The Greens won the electorates of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith last year on the way to claiming 16 seats in federal Parliament and gained the inner-city seat of South Brisbane in the 2020 Queensland election when Amy McMahon secured 38 per cent of the primary vote.
The Greens also hold the state lower house seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina in NSW, Maiwar in inner-west Brisbane and Melbourne, Prahran, Brunswick and Richmond in Victoria.
Ms Boyd said Max Chandler-Mather's success in Griffith was a blueprint for winning in Newcastle, where the Greens have two city councillors in John Mackenzie and Charlotte McCabe.
"When we look at the experience in Queensland and the way the Greens vote was built there, from council to state to federal, what we saw was a very similar pattern to what we've seen with the Greens vote in Newcastle," she said.
"I strongly believe that, if we don't turn Newcastle Green in the next election, we will certainly do it in the one after."
Mr Chandler-Mather won a 7.6-point swing against the Liberal National Party and led the primary vote to unseat prominent Labor frontbencher Terri Butler.
It ticks all the boxes when it comes to a location we can turn.
- Abigail Boyd
Ms Boyd said Mr Chandler-Mather had worked full-time on serving the electorate and raising his profile in the years leading up to the election.
The Greens' primary vote in Griffith increased from 10.2 per cent in 2013 to 23.7 per cent in 2019 and 34.6 per cent last year.
In Newcastle, Ms McCabe won 16.5 per cent of the primary vote in the 2019 state election, down from 18.3 per cent in 2015 when Michael Osbourne was the Greens candidate.
But the Greens vote in the federal seat of Newcastle has followed a somewhat similar trajectory to Griffith, rising from 12 per cent in 2013 to 13.7 per cent in 2016, 15.6 per cent in 2019 and 20.1 per cent last year with Ms McCabe again the candidate.
Labor's sitting MPs in the state and federal seats, Tim Crakanthorp and Sharon Claydon, hold healthy margins of about 18 percentage points, but the Newcastle Herald has been told Labor is wary of the Greens increasing their popularity at the March 25 NSW election.
The median age of residents in Griffith is 34, compared with 37 in the federal seat of Newcastle.
"In Newcastle the demographics are changing. COVID changed things," Ms Boyd said.
"It's a university town, which gives it that great, vibrant, optimistic youth aspect. Young people vote for the Greens, and once they vote for the Greens they stay with us. That's what we're seeing.
"It ticks all the boxes when it comes to a location we can turn."
Michael Parris
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
