Labor holds all four, but only Newcastle is regarded as a safe bet for the incumbents after the Liberals halved the margins in Paterson and Shortland in 2019 and the Nationals, with help from a high-profile One Nation candidate, almost unseated Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter.

Mr Fitzgibbon is retiring from politics, leaving Olympic shooter Dan Repacholi to defend a slender 3 per cent margin in the sprawling electorate.

Scott Morrison and a host of cabinet ministers have become regular visitors to the region over the past year, as has Opposition leader Anthony Albanese, suggesting both parties regard it as a key battleground.

Labor must retain all its existing 69 seats and win another seven to form government in its own right.

Any losses in its Hunter heartland could be fatal for its hopes of winning this election.

Held by: Pat Conroy

Margin: 4.5%

Enrolled voters: 114,000 (in 2019)

Confirmed challengers: Nell McGill (Liberal), Kim Grierson (Greens), Kenneth Maxwell (United Australia Party), Quintin King (Pauline Hanson's One Nation), Barry Reed (Liberal Democrats), Bree Roberts (Animal Justice).

Summary: The Shortland division stretches down the east side of Lake Macquarie.

It has been represented by just four Labor members since it was formed in 1949, but Mr Conroy suffered a 10 per cent swing against him in 2019 when Ms McGill, a lawyer, won 37.4 per cent of the primary vote.

The Liberals preselected Ms McGill again in November and have been in campaign mode ever since.

The Coalition has not made any grandiose funding promises specific to Shortland yet, but senior ministers have been on hand for plenty of photo opportunities in recent months.

It would be a surprise if Labor suffered two big swings against it in a row, but the Liberals are giving themselves an outside chance. If Labor loses here, it's in trouble.

Held by: Meryl Swanson

Margin: 5.0%

Enrolled voters: 123,000 (in 2019)

Confirmed challengers: Brooke Vitnell (Liberal), Louise Ihlein (Greens), Angela Ketas (Informed Medical Options), Jason Olbourne (United Australia Party), Neil Turner (Pauline Hanson's One Nation), Sonia Bailey (Liberal Democrats).

Summary: After a boundary redistribution in 2016, Paterson now covers a diverse horizontal stretch from Nelson Bay in the east to Abermain in the west.

It is the only seat in the Hunter to have changed hands and was held for 15 years by Liberal Bob Baldwin before the redraw. As in Shortland, Labor had its margin in Paterson halved in 2019.

Young Medowie lawyer Brooke Vitnell has been campaigning for months and has benefited from a series of $10,000-a-plate fundraising dinners with Morrison, Peter Dutton and Josh Frydenberg.

Her husband, Julian Leembruggen, works as a strategic adviser in the PM's office.

A cashed-up campaign could help deliver the seat back to the Liberals, but, again, two large swings in a row may be a bridge too far.

The government is spending $600 million on a gas-fired power plant in Kurri Kurri, a project which offers the promise of construction jobs but also air pollution for the nearby community.

Mr Turner won 14.2 per cent of the primary vote in 2019, double the Greens' tally.

Preferences from One Nation and UAP may be crucial.

Held by: Joel Fitzgibbon (retiring)

Margin: 3%

Enrolled voters: 121,000 (in 2019)

Confirmed challengers: Dan Repacholi (Labor), James Thomson (Nationals), Dale McNamara (Pauline Hanson's One Nation), Daniel Wallace (Ind), Stuart Bonds (Ind), Geoff Passfield (United Australia Party), Janet Murray (Greens), Victoria Davies (Animal Justice).

Summary: Based around the coalfields, the division was redrawn in 2016 to include the western side of Lake Macquarie.

Mr Fitzgibbon held it comfortably that year but suffered a 14.2 per cent swing against him in 2019, partly due to Labor's dithering over energy policy and the surprise performance of One Nation's Stuart Bonds, who won 21.6 per cent of the primary vote.

Mr Bonds is running this time as an independent after falling out with the party. It remains to be seen whether he can come close to repeating that effort without the One Nation branding and whether his preferences can help the Nationals' James Thomson to an upset.

Mr McNamara is a prominent businessman in the Singleton area who attracted 12.3 per cent of the primary vote in last year's Upper Hunter byelection. His preferences, and those of the UAP, could also flow heavily to the Nationals.

Mr Repacholi, from Nulkaba, has been a frenetic campaigner and is a popular figure in the Cessnock area. Game on.

Held by: Sharon Claydon

Margin: 13.8%

Enrolled voters: 118,000 (in 2019)

Confirmed challengers: Katrina Wark (Liberal), Charlotte McCabe (Greens), Mark Watson (Pauline Hanson's One Nation), Amanda Cook (United Australia Party), Emily Brollo (Animal Justice).

Summary: The electorate largely resembles the City of Newcastle council area, stretching from Stockton in the north, south to Merewether and west to Minmi.

It is hard to see anything but another Labor landslide in a seat the party has never lost. In 2019, Labor won 44 of the 46 polling booths, losing only two in Merewether.

Ms Wark, a Newcastle councillor, was one of several Liberal candidates installed by a Scott Morrison-led committee which took over the state executive early this month, a move which has caused bitter division in the party.

Ms Wark won 29 per cent of the primary vote in 2019.

Ms McCabe will hope to match the performance of fellow Newcastle Greens councillor John Mackenzie, who won 15.6 per cent of the primary vote three years ago.

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