Coronavirus: Massive job losses but worst yet to come

The job losses wiped out more than two years of employment growth in a single month, and the true picture could be far worse.

The national unemployment rate rose from 5.2 to 6.2 per cent from March to April, but the government's JobKeeper subsidies and a dramatic fall in workforce participation masked the true impact of COVID-19 on the labour market.

Hunter Research Foundation Centre economist Anthea Bill said on Thursday that she expected the rise in the region's jobless rate, which will be announced next week, to be similar to the headline national figure.

"I'd say there's going to be similar kinds of trends that are going to be playing out," Dr Bill said.

The Hunter will have shed 15,000 jobs in a month if the national downturn is mirrored in the region.

Some economists had tipped the national jobless rate to rise to more than 8 per cent, but Dr Bill said the underemployment rate could be a better guide to the state of the jobs market.

"The underemployment rate has jumped from 8.8 per cent to 13.7 per cent from March to April, which is the highest on record, going back to the 1970s," she said.

"The average rate for the last five years is 8.5 per cent, excluding the April figure.

"The underemployment rate for 15- to 24-year-olds in April is 23.5 per cent seasonally adjusted, so almost one in four young people aren't working the hours they would like."

A 6.2 per cent jobless figure in the Hunter next week would be about one percentage point up on February and far better than the region's 8 per cent jobless rate in 2016. Unemployment was at 10.5 per cent in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie in 2001.

Dr Bill said JobKeeper created a misleading picture and expected the jobless rate to rise sharply when the payments stopped.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said 6 million people were receiving JobKeeper payments and 1.6 million were on unemployment benefits or the youth allowance.

"Those on JobKeeper and not working will still be defined as attached to their job so they will be counted as employed even if the person has not worked an hour in the last week," Dr Bill said.

Nationally, monthly hours worked fell 8 per cent in April and the workforce participation rate fell from 66 to 63.5 per cent.

The participation rate usually varies only half a percentage point or less from month to month.

Almost half a million people left the labour market, which helps explain why the jobless rate did not jump higher than one percentage point.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics jobless data covered the period from March 29 to April 11.

Dr Bill said changes in the world economy would have a long-term impact on Australia.

"What does it mean to have a tourism sector and a higher education sector on ice?" she said.

"What does it mean if trade protectionism starts to ramp up? What does it mean to have business confidence and consumer confidence where it's at for so long?

"How are we going to deal with debt and mortgage repayments? Are creditors going to wait that long to get payments?

"There are so many unknowns, and we're just at the start of this, even if we can sort out the domestic economy."

NSW suffered the country's largest decrease in employment in April with more than 220,000 people losing their jobs as the coronavirus pandemic battered the economy.

Nearly 600,000 additional people were out of work nationally with Australia's unemployment rate jumping one percentage point to 6.2 per cent.

NSW recorded the largest decrease in employment in April as 221,400 people lost their jobs and the unemployment rate rose 1.1 points to 6 per cent.

Tasmania (1.3 points) and Queensland (1.2 points) experienced the biggest jump when it came to the unemployment rate.

NSW recorded the largest participation rate decrease, declining 2.8 points to 62.6 per cent.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian put on a brave face, saying she had been "heartened" to see NSW leading the nation when it came to consumer confidence.

"I remain positive about our future so long as all of us stick to the rules, all of us don't get carried away, and all of us respect each other ... The stakes are very high," Ms Berejiklian told reporters in Sydney.

She said housing would be a "buyer's market in the next little while" in NSW.

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