Newcastle need to win most of their remaining games to make the top eight, but they also need a team placed higher than them to falter on the run home.
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After four consecutive wins, the Knights sit ninth on 25 points, one behind the teams ranked sixth to eighth: South Sydney, Cronulla and North Queensland.
It is at least one of these sides, along with fifth-placed Canberra on 28 points, who they'll be hoping to surpass in the last five rounds.
The top two teams, Penrith (first) and Brisbane (second), are considered home and hosed for the finals on 34 points.
Third-placed New Zealand and fourth-placed Melbourne, both on 30 points, also appear highly likely to make the play-offs.
If Newcastle win all five games they have left, they will finish on 35 points.
But, as an example, if they win four and lose one - finishing on 33 points - the Warriors and Storm would still finish higher if they each win just two of their five remaining fixtures.
So the teams placed fifth to eighth are who the Knights need to drop points.
The two other finals contenders that could come into play are Manly, who loom in 10th, and Parramatta in 11th.
The Sea Eagles are equal on points with Newcastle (+72) but have a worse points differential (-25). The Eels are on 24 points.
The Newcastle Herald has assessed the draws of the sides the Knights are contending with and predicted if they'll make the top eight.
RAIDERS (5th) 28 pts
Run home: Tigers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)
Play three of their five games at home but were abysmal against the Knights there last week. Should beat the lowly Tigers and Bulldogs but may need another win to ensure a finals spot.
Tip: MAKE the eight.
RABBITOHS (6th) 26
Run home: Sharks (h), Dragons (h), Knights (a), BYE, Roosters (h)
Benefit from a bye in the penultimate round but their next two games are in Perth and Cairns. That's a lot of travelling for this time of year. Matches against the Sharks and Knights which could prove pivotal.
Tip: MAKE
SHARKS (7th) 26 pts
Run home: Rabbitohs (a), Titans (h), Cowboys (a), Knights (a), Raiders (h)
Under-pressure side who will need to turn their form around substantially if they are to avoid sliding out of the eight. Last three games are against sides that will likely be in contention.
Tip: MISS
COWBOYS (8th) 26 pts
Run home: Broncos (h), BYE, Sharks (h), Dolphins (a), Panthers (a)
Huge game against the Broncos this week followed by what looks be a well-timed bye. If they can beat the Sharks at home, could be in the box seat to hold down their place in the eight.
Tip: MAKE
KNIGHTS (9th) 25 pts
Run home: Dolphins (a), Bulldogs (h), Rabbitohs (h), Sharks (h) and Dragons (a).
Have good form at home in 2023, winning six of nine to date, so are well placed with three consecutive home games over the next month. If they can keep winning, their fate could come down to beating the Sharks in the penultimate round.
Tip: MAKE
SEA EAGLES (10th) 25
Run home: Roosters (a), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Bulldogs (a), Tigers (h)
Have likely left their run too late given they face the in-form Panthers and Warriors away in coming weeks.
Tip: MISS
EELS (11th) 24 pts
Run home: Dragons (h), Broncos (a), Roosters (h), Panthers (a), BYE
Oddly have a bye last round, but likely need to beat the Broncos in Brisbane and Panthers in Penrith.
Tip: MISS
