NSW Treasury Intergenerational Report plots coal's final exit

The latest NSW intergenerational report also forecasts that coal mining royalties in NSW are expected to more than halve by 2061.

NSW Treasury modelled two scenarios for the decline of coal production jobs in coming decades as part of the government's five-yearly intergenerational report.

Under the first scenario, coal jobs would decline from the current level of about 22,000 to between 5000 and 10,000 in 2047.

In the worst-case scenario, the last coal job in NSW disappears about 2041.

The report notes that the state's energy transition will bring both "risks and opportunities".

"Declining global demand for coal will reduce NSW's economic growth over the projection period and will have impacts both on employment and the fiscal outlook," the report says.

"There are also significant economic and fiscal risks in the broader transition in energy generation. Specifically, a slow and disorderly transition in domestic energy generation would be sufficient to more than offset any benefits from higher global coal demand."

Japan, South Korea and China, three of NSW's biggest coal purchasers, are all moving to net zero emissions by 2050.

More recently, the European Union and the Biden Administration in the United States have outlined policies which would impose carbon tariffs on imports from countries with higher greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition the lasting effects of the COVID pandemic has led to forecasts of global demand being revised further down.

NSW Minerals Council chief executive Stephen Galilee said the industry was aware of the different scenarios for the industry's future.

"We note the different hypothetical scenarios, as well as those outlined in NSW Government's coal strategy, and the new opportunities for NSW metals and minerals as demand increases due to advances in technology and renewable energy production," he said.

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"NSW coal producers are well aware of the likely changes for their product across different global markets, and demand for high quality NSW export coal is expected to remain strong for decades."

A spokesman for NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro said thermal coal, mined from the Hunter Region, was among the best in the world. He said ending or reducing thermal coal exports while long-term global demand remained significant was not government policy.

"Demand for coking coal, used in steel production, has an even longer-term outlook," he said.

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