Reports this week that the readers of this august publication are most interested in climate change as an election issue prompted Election Diary to hit up Newcastle Uni political scientist Jim Jose for his take on the campaign.
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Emeritus Professor Jose offered the unsurprising observation that Australians had "turned off the government and turned off politics".
But Jim's views are somewhat more informed and nuanced than most. He suggests Albo has not yet been as successfully vilified as Bill Shorten before the 2019 vote.
"I think Albanese is more positively perceived, because he seems to come across as down to earth, and he hasn't had as much negative publicity about his character for long enough, whereas there was a fairly sustained wave of anti-Shorten publicity for a couple of years," he says.
Jim says the low-key Labor leader has come across as "level-headed, focused and collaborative" rather than "jumping up and down" at every opportunity.
The Prof then let rip with an array of non-peer-reviewed metaphors which left ED's head spinning.
"I think that as soon as the budget's dropped, I think Morrison will be, as they said in the rev-head days, popping the clutch and dropping the foot in the hope that Labor will be left standing.
"I think Albanese's in a position where he's likely to, not so much steal a march, but, a bit like the tortoise, chug, chug, chug while the hare is sleeping."
But Jim says Albo has allowed himself to be snookered into ruling out an alliance with the Greens in the event of a hung parliament.
"They've already trapped themselves in this regard by allowing that framing of politics, instead of nipping it in the bud by saying we're not even at that stage yet.
"As Gillard found out, you're going to have to do deals. She did it very well, but Labor seems to have this idiotic knee-jerk reaction which bites it in the bum all the time."
Resources Minister Keith "PEP-11" Pitt labelled the Greens' $19 billion pitch to subsidise the wages of ex-coal workers as "hush money", but Jim says the policy is "quite smart".
"Basically what they've said is we're going to ensure that everybody's livelihood is protected, but at the same time we want to move away from coalmining."
Casting his eye around the wide, brown land, Jim sees issues for Labor in "heartland" seats in western Sydney while the Coalition faces trouble east, north and west.
He says "pretty well credentialled, Liberal-leaning" independents ("not from the loony left or loony right") will give the government curry in a few "safe" Liberal seats.
"These candidates are emphasising integrity in government. I think that in the electorates we're talking about there's going to be some cut-through there.
"It may mean there's a preference issue in the end and the Liberal candidate may still get up, but they're going to be dangers."
Returning to metaphor, Jim sees Queensland as a "different kettle of fish".
"The UAP pushed the preferences last time and gave the LNP a landslide. I'm not sure that's going to happen next time around.
"I suspect that two or three of those seats are likely to come back to the Labor fold. I also think it's likely the preferences aren't necessarily going to run quite the same way.
"It may be a couple of thousand voters who make a difference in certain seats."
He says Labor is "likely to do well" in WA, where the Libs, decimated at last year's state election, could lose a couple of seats.
On climate change, he says Morrison will "gamble" that the government has "done enough to go to the polls saying we are taking the responsible line, we're looking after the economy".
Jim expects Labor to talk more about issues affecting older people.
"The combination of the pandemic and the aged care issue may shift the grey vote away from the Coalition, but that remains to be seen.
"The pandemic may be a distant memory by May, but not for those people who have lost loved ones or were trapped in nursing homes when they didn't need to be."
Positive campaign
Scott Morrison is not the only political aspirant laid low by COVID-19 this week.
Labor's Hunter candidate, Dan Repacholi, has tested positive, forcing him to cancel his second campaign launch with Albanese.
The Nats' Hunter candidate, James Thomson, had COVID in January, so both should have a clear run when the campaign proper starts in April.
Michael Parris
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
Michael Parris reports on politics for the Newcastle Herald. He started at the Herald in 1994 after working in the ABC Newcastle newsroom. Michael spent much of his career as a sub-editor before moving into political reporting in 2017. He was a finalist in the Sports Australia national media awards for his stories about a male-only tennis club in Newcastle. He has covered NSW and federal elections, state and federal budgets and local politics. He has also written extensively about the COVID-19 pandemic with a special focus on data analysis and the effects of lockdowns on the Hunter community.
