Sydney FC have secured a place in the A-League finals, leaving the Newcastle Jets one miracle shot at claiming sixth spot - a task made even more difficult after confirmation that former Arsenal star Carl Jenkinson will miss the final round on suspension.
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The Sky Blues accounted for Brisbane 2-0 at Suncorp Stadium on Monday night to move to 35 points - six clear of the Jets - and take a stranglehold of fifth place.
With a round to play, Wellington (-7 goal difference) are sixth with 32 points and in the box seat to claim the final position in the play-offs.
Perth Glory (-9), the Jets (-13) and Western United (-14) are on 29 points and are the only teams capable of leap-frogging the Phoenix.
Wellington only need a point against Macarthur on Saturday to feature in the finals.
The Jets take on Sydney at Allianz Stadium on Saturday, which kicks off at the same time as the Bulls-Phoenix game at Campbelltown.
Glory square off against Western United in Perth in the late game Saturday night.
To be any hope of qualifying for the post season, Newcastle need to beat Sydney FC and have Wellington lose to the Bulls by a margin big enough to turn around a six-goal difference in for-and-against.
They also have to finish with a better goal difference than Perth or Western United if either finish on 32 points.
Adding to the difficulty for the Jets, co-captains Jenkinson and Brandon O'Neil are sidelined after receiving red cards in the 3-1 loss to Central Coast last round.
The match review panel handed Jenkinson a one-match ban after he was sent off for "denying the opposing team an obvious goal-scoring opportunity" when he pulled down Mariners striker Jason Cummings.
O'Neill received two yellow cards which triggers a one-match suspension.
Mo Al-Taay is a likely replacement for O'Neill.
Mark Natta could switch from left back, where he has been outstanding, to cover for Jenkinson.
Phillip Cancar, who has played just 12 minutes of the bench since signing from Scottish club Livingston, is another option.
Sydney have won their past two games and drew the two before that.
Coach Steve Corica said they wanted to finish the regular season with a home win over the Jets but he may elect to rest some players with niggles.
Robert Mak injured his hamstring after scoring the opener against Brisbane.
"Mak has a tight hamstring. It was a little bit precautionary when he told us he wanted to come off," Corica said. "We will wait and see. He might be one we will probably look to rest if it is no good and just get him ready for the finals. He knows his body pretty well."
Corica said the most pleasing aspect of his team's performance against Brisbane was in defence and goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne asserted his big game credentials with a sensational game. He made multiple saves to deny the Roar.
"That is what we expect from him," Corica said. "He is a big, brave goalkeeper and it was nice for him to keep a clean sheet. It was great for his confidence and great for the team's as well."
James Gardiner
James Gardiner, chief football and rugby writer at the Newcastle Herald.
James Gardiner, chief football and rugby writer at the Newcastle Herald.
