We recently attended the Patrick White Oration, hosted by the Scone Literary Festival (SLF), for the town's favourite son, a Nobel laureate for literature. Driving into the magnificent Upper Hunter, we reflected on the last time we attended an SWF event in March 2020, just as awareness was dawning in Australia of the arrival of COVID.
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As we walked into that SLF meeting hall, the seating had an odd, spaced configuration. Our first encounter with social distancing. What was going on? Within a month, we were to experience the full suite of restrictions that became part of the Australian way of life during COVID at the dawn of the 2020s.
What a contrast to the SLF event in early November 2022.
As the crowd swelled in the Scone Race Club reception area ahead of the address by leading feminist Wendy McCarthy AO on her latest book, "Don't be too polite girls," the 100 guests milled freely with a drink in their hands in very close proximity. This was three weeks after the NSW state government lifted the last COVID restrictions on interacting with others.
The following day we attended a family gathering in Newcastle to celebrate our much-locked-down Melbourne-based son's visit to the Hunter. One of my relatives was an apology because he was feeling unwell. It is just as well that he stayed away. He had contracted COVID. The following day, the SLF organiser contacted me, warning me that someone at the Scone event had also tested positive.
By mid-November, there were daily updates of the rapidly rising number of people struck down by COVID's fourth wave, with health authorities issuing urgent warnings. The virus has now mutated into a hydra-headed monster, into a mix of Omicron subvariants, including BA.5, XBB and BQ.1, which transmit very rapidly. Experts have branded the new strains a "variant soup" and "the grandchildren of Omicron."
Epidemiologists are now racing to tweak vaccines to counter these new strains. This fourth wave is expected to peak the week before Christmas. Professor Wood (UNSW) believes that, like Singapore: "the fourth wave will be short and sharp, but we will see a considerable rise in hospitalisations and deaths, particularly of people over 65. Professor Esterman (Uni of SA) has said: "waning immunity and barely any public health measures in place, were driving this latest COVID outbreak."
A dangerous complacency in the community seems to have descended. I am surprised that the arrival of the new wave is not a topic of conversation.
A dangerous complacency in the community seems to have descended. I am surprised that the arrival of the new wave is not a topic of conversation. The supermarkets are not running out of spuds, and there is no panic buying of toilet paper. Also, in these crowded locations, you only spy the occasional older person wearing a mask, despite the NSW Health strongly recommending wearing masks in indoor public spaces.
What a contrast to the reaction of Australians to earlier COVID waves. Remember the daily Gladys and Dan shows, reporting on how each state was fairing, particularly with the first and second vaccine jabs? So we were delighted when 96 per cent coverage was reached for two doses in NSW.
We were urged to have our third and fourth doses as new variants developed, but there has been a very slow uptake. By early November 2022, only 72 per cent of people have had their third jab, and only 42 per cent have had their fourth. Has pandemic fatigue set in? A large proportion of the community will soon have dangerously inadequate protection.
In a disturbing indication that the fourth wave is gaining momentum, the number of COVID cases recorded in the Hunter / New England Health District jumped by almost 85 per cent in a week.
According to a recent report in the Newcastle Herald on November 18, there were 2354 cases recorded across the district in the week ending 12/11/22, up from 1280 in the week prior - nearly double in one week.
With the NSW government stepping back and lifting all COVID restrictions in mid-October, is it time for a rapid reverse in our health policy? Kate Newton from Dudley (Herald letters, 19/11) believes: "it seems that most have been lulled into a false sense of security by the abrogation of government responsibility. They have dropped the ball on COVID, and our most vulnerable people have been hung out to dry."
Health officials around the country have yet to announce the return of any significant restrictions.
Many have ruled out the strict protocols and lockdowns Australians experienced in 2020 and 2021. Our aged population is again dangerously exposed. As a senior citizen with co-morbidities, that includes me.
Newcastle East's Dr John Tierney AM is a former Hunter-based federal senator
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